In 2016, Hillary Can (Almost) Beat Anybody

The thing about polls is that they are just a snapshot—a gauge of what’s happenin’ now. Remember when Jeb Bush was expected to win easily—then Walker—then Carson? That’s just to point out that what people think today may be very different from what they think in July—or November.

That being said, things look pretty good for Hillary right now. We even have maps!

If the presidential election was held today, businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz would lose to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 44,000 poll respondents.

The analysis is the first glimpse of how Clinton might perform against the remaining Republican candidates in every state. It uses the opinions of 44,000 registered voters, collected since January, plus a variety of characteristics in each state like age, gender, and President Obama’s approval rating, to determine what the results of a presidential election might look like now. About 20 percent of voters are undecided, but the maps below capture who wins a plurality in each state, and with that, the electoral college.

Here’s the electoral college breakdown for each candidate, directly from Morning Consult.

Here’s how Hillary would do against Donald Trump:

Hillary would do even better against Ted Cruz:

However, Kasich would beat Hillary, if the election were today.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only candidate who could beat Clinton in November. Both Trump and Cruz would lose to Clinton by considerable margins in a head-to-head race, winning just 210 and 206 electoral college votes, respectively. By contrast, Kasich comfortably beats Clinton, racking up 304 electoral college votes to her 234.

Kasich easily clears the 270 votes needed for the White House by winning a bloc of Midwest states that Republicans haven’t won since President George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988. Our analysis shows Kasich winning every state that Trump and Cruz win, but he also adds victories in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Clinton performs 3 to 10 percentage points better against Trump or Cruz in those states than against Kasich.

Of course, this is if the election were held today. In a year of negative campaigning. The sales pitch and personality of Trump and Cruz are well known—and not very well liked. Kasich has been the bland character on the debate stage, and this may be why he is doing well in this poll. In a year like this, it’s better to lie low and cover your head.

Never-the-less, the conservative National Review offers five reasons why they think Hillary will be our next president.

First Female President–Hillary’s official announcement video was devoid of a clear campaign message — but does she really need one other than, “It’s time for a woman president”?

The Electoral College Is the GOP’s Worst Enemy–Our constitutionally mandated Electoral College has evolved to a point where it is slanted in favor of the Democratic party’s nominee.

Obama’s Third Term–President Obama’s current job approval rating stands at 45.3 percent, with a 50.3 percent disapproval rating, according to Real Clear Politics. These are highly respectable approval numbers for a seventh presidential year.

Bill Clinton’s Third Term– “Bill Clinton is almost certainly the most popular person in American politics. A new NBC-Wall Street Journal poll showed that 56 percent of people have a positive view of the former president while just 26 percent hold a negative one.”

Republicans and the General-Election Curse–In five out of the past six presidential elections, starting with 1992, Republicans have lost the popular vote.

This is a snapshot in polling that the Clinton campaign would like to freeze until November.

ADDENDUM

As noted by numerous commenters, Bernie Sanders polls better than Hillary does in general election match-ups against all three GOP candidates.

For full disclosure, see the numbers from RealClearPolitics:

–Trump v Sanders (Sanders +16)
–Cruz v Sanders (Sanders +11)
–Kasich v Sanders (Sanders +3)