Kansas Special Election Coverage: 4th Congressional District

There is a special election today in the Fourth Congressional District of Kansas to fill the seat vacated by Mike Pompeo, the man tapped to head the CIA by Donald Trump. As a result, Pompeo’s seat must be filled and the battle is raging in this deep-red conservative district where it may come down to the wire.

Here’s the background from NPR:

A special election in Kansas Tuesday has Republicans sounding worried about an enthusiasm gap in the Trump era.

Trump himself was apparently worried enough that he cut a robo call for Republican state party Treasurer Ron Estes.

“On Tuesday, Republican Ron Estes needs your vote — and needs it badly,” the president says in the recorded call intended to boost Estes in the race to replace Mike Pompeo, who is serving as Trump’s CIA director. “Ron is a conservative leader who’s going to work with me to make American great again. We’re going to do things really great for our country. Our country needs help; Ron is going to be helping us — big league. But I need Republicans like Ron Estes to help me get the job done. This is an important election. There’s really few very much more important. And I need your vote for Ron Estes on Tuesday.”

This is a heavily Republican district that includes Wichita. It’s one that Trump won by 27 points in 2016. But in a low turnout election, almost anything can happen.

Estes will probably win, but it’s not a guarantee and stands as a test to how both parties can perform following the election of Trump to the presidency.

Roll Call has changed their rating on the Kansas race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican:”

The April 11 race between Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes and Democrat James Thompson, a lawyer, hasn’t received a lot of attention, but the National Republican Congressional Committee recently began an ad campaign in a district Trump carried comfortably in November. National and local Democrats haven’t put in much time or effort into the race, but there is some GOP concern about the enthusiasm gap and the quality of the Estes campaign.

We’re changing the Inside Elections/Roll Call rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

Updates later tonight after the polls close at 7pm CT in Kansas.

Update

Republican Ron Estes held on for the narrow win last night, 52 to 45:

That margin of victory can’t leave the GOP feeling too comfortable right now with the prospects of the 2018 midterms on the horizon.

Also of note, there is a special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional district on April 18th. This contest is to fill the seat vacated by Tom Price, who was nominated by Trump to lead the Department of Health of Human Services.