The number of “Toss up” or “Leaning” House seats in 2018 is breathtaking, to say the least. If you examine our 2018 House Ratings page, you’ll find dozens and dozens of Republican seats in the “Toss up” column meaning that Democrats are easily within striking distance of taking the House on Nov. 6. One downside is that there are simply too many House seats in play every two years to adequately focus on each of them. We’d still like to bring you coverage of all the important House races, so here are some headlines from the past few days to get you up to speed on what’s happening in the battle for control of the lower chamber.
5 under-the-radar House races that could bring election night surprises
Districts mentioned: AR-2, IL-14, NY-24, PA-10, WV-3
This article from Mic.com points out that rather than watch the seats labeled as “Toss up,” it’s important to watch some of the other seats which aren’t on the radar as close races, but conditions are present which could produce some upsets on election night. In Arkansas’ 2nd District, Democrats have a strong nominee in Rep. Clarke Tucker and though the seat is labeled as “likely Republican,” signs indicate that Tucker could still score an upset. The race in Illinois’ 14th District was not considered competitive, but Democrats are now spending money in the district which means they believe there is an underlying chance for victory. In the Northeast, New York’s 24th District is also leaning Republican, but Democrats think there is an opening to hit incumbent Rep. John Katko for supporting the President’s tax plan which could adversely affect citizens of the Empire State due to the cap on state and local tax deductions. Just south of New York, in the race for Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Democrats just started spending money on ads which means they think this race could be winnable depending on conditions despite a Republican-lean. Finally, next door to Pennsylvania, in West Virginia’s 3rd District, a district Donald Trump won by 49 points, Democrats see an opening due to circumstances which created an open race and a strong Democratic candidate. – Read on Mic.com
Miami House race once seen as easy Dem pickup tightens
District mentioned: FL-27
With longtime incumbent Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen retiring from this seat, Democrats saw an opening in this district which encompasses parts of Miami inside Miami-Dade county in south Florida. The district contains heavy immigrant populations, around 70% Hispanic, and there had been assumptions by Democrats that this one would be winnable. For Democrat Donna Shalala, however, the race has become tougher than Democrats expected. Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a rookie, and newcomer to the political scene has deep roots within the district and is giving Shalala a serious contest that could come down to election night. The seat remains in the “leaning Democrat” column, but the race is anything but one-sided. – Read on Fox News
We are beginning to see which House seats Republicans think they’ll lose
Districts mentioned: KS-3, PA-12, CO-6, VA-10, IA-1
Republicans know they will lose House seats in November, the question is how many and which districts are proving to be most vulnerable. As a result, and is customary for both major parties, decisions must be made in the remaining weeks of the campaign to reroute money away from failing bids and spend money in areas where vulnerable Republicans have a chance to hang on if they can get financial support. As a result, seats from Kansas to Virginia have the GOP in a quandary now over when to cut-and-run rather than keep pouring money into races which may prove to be a waste of resources on Election Day. There are over 45 GOP-controlled seats which must be defended and simple math says that resources must be spent wisely in the final days. – Read on Vox
Republicans Pull Back in Some Close House Races as Chances of Victory Slip
As with the Vox story above, Republicans only have 25 days remaining to push their message and defend seats they believe they can win. Some races are starting to tilt more toward Democrats so the GOP, along with allied political action committees, are strategizing on where to allocate resources in the remaining stretch. As many as a half-dozen House races have already begun to receive less spending than back in September. – Read on Bloomberg
Democrats Have A Chance To Win One Of The Reddest Districts In The Country
District mentioned: WV-3
As mentioned above in the Mic.com story, West Virginia’s 3rd district may end up being tight on election night despite Donald Trump’s massive double-digit victory in 2016. FiveThirtyEight has flagged this race as the having the potential for the largest party flip in electoral history. For one, the district has a +37 rating for Republicans meaning by voter identification, Democrats shouldn’t stand a chance. However, the Republican incumbent chose to run for the West Virginia state house which created an open seat that Democrats may have a chance to pick up. If circumstances line up, and enough of a blue wave crashes in West Virginia, this seat might go blue. – Read on FiveThirtyEight
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