He was already leading in most polls, save a few where Bernie was nipping at his heels in a statistical tie, but Joe Biden’s entrance to the Presidential race seems to have created a real, palpable bounce according to several sources.
Analysts have been speculating for weeks whether Biden had already hit his ceiling of support or whether some voters were skeptical that a long, drawn-out decision meant the former Vice President would once again skip the Presidential dance.
Morning Consult Poll: Biden 36%, Sanders 22%, Warren 9%
Politico reports on the latest numbers from Morning Consult, which found a 6-point bounce for Biden since their last poll was taken:
Biden, who announced his bid Thursday and held his first rally Monday in Pittsburgh, is now the first choice of more than a third of those who plan to participate in their state’s Democratic primary or caucus, with 36 percent of Democratic voters saying they prefer the former vice president to be the party’s nominee to take on President Donald Trump next year. That is a 6-point increase from last week, when Biden led the pack with 30 percent.
The poll was conducted April 22-28, surveying 15,475 voters who plan to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus. The margin of error is 1 percentage point.
Biden’s minisurge gives him a 14-point lead over the second-place candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who is at 22 percent. [Emphasis added]
Taking 36 percent of the Democratic field is not too shabby. It’s shy of hitting the 50 percent mark which most candidates are shooting for, but it’s a clear indication that not much is slowing Biden down, not even questions about Anita Hill in 1991 or his “handsy” touching of the females around him.
CNN/SSRS Poll: Biden 39%, Sanders 15%, Warren 8%
CNN also did some polling and found Biden with numbers higher than Morning Consult:
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after Biden’s announcement on Thursday shows 39% of voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents saying he is their top choice for the nomination, up from 28% who said the same in March.
That puts Biden more than 20 points ahead of his nearest competitor, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont — who holds 15% support in the poll — and roughly 30 points ahead of the next strongest candidate, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%).
Warren ranks about evenly with South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7%), former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (6%) and Sen. Kamala Harris of California (5%), who round out the list of those earning 5% or more in the poll. The remaining 17 candidates tested all held the support of 2% or less.
Looking at these numbers, it’s not surprising that Biden is leading. He’s the most well-known in the race, even beyond Sanders. What is interesting, however, is that Elizabeth Warren continues to hold down third place. Her campaign has been struggling as of late yet she seems to have a floor of support among Democratic voters which is keeping her name closer to the top of the field than the bottom.
In both of these polls, Biden and Sanders combine to control more than 50 percent of all Democratic primary voters. The field, at the moment, is theirs to split up and fight over. For now, however, Biden’s sights are set on President Trump rather than his more immediate primary opponents.
The strategy, in the short term, is to prove that you, as a prospective candidate, can bring it to Donald Trump and sustain his returning attacks. Biden is a scrapper, much like Bernie Sanders, but he’s also got the air of the Presidency around him having served 8 years under President Obama.
Biden has cemented the “front-runner” status. Whether he’s now stuck at this support ceiling, or whether he expands his numbers in the coming weeks will probably help determine the overall trajectory of the Democratic primary race into next year.
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