First Georgia Senate Runoff Poll Shows Surprising Numbers

More polls? Yes, more polls. We’re just over a week removed from Election Day, and several states are still being counted, control of the U.S. Senate hasn’t been settled, and the U.S. House of Representatives still remains in flux with Democrats slated to retain power there.

Thanks to a law in Georgia requiring candidates to achieve at least 50% of the vote, both Senate races in that state are headed to a runoff election on January 5, 2021. Residents of Georgia have until December 7 to register to vote in these contests.

As it stands today, both Republicans are favored to win, but by differing margins, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

A poll conducted by a Republican-leaning national firm shows neither political party with a clear advantage in the twin January runoffs that are likely to decide control of the U.S. Senate.

The poll showed Kelly Loeffler at 49% of the vote compared to Democrat Raphael Warnock’s 48% showing – within the margin of error of 2.6 percentage points. About 3% were undecided.

In the other race, U.S. Sen. David Perdue had a 50-46 lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff, echoing the results of the November election when the Republican fell just under the majority-vote mark he needed to win outright. About 4% of Georgians were undecided.

The Republican incumbents, Loeffler and Purdue, performed better than President Trump in the state which gives the GOP an edge in terms of likelihood to control the Senate next year.

What does this mean in terms of a Senate majority for either party? As it stands today, Democrats will settle with 48 seats, while Republicans will take 50. The remaining two seats to be settled are in Georgia where literal control of the chamber hangs in the balance:

So far, Democrats have secured 48 seats in the Senate. And Republicans look poised to control 50 seats by the time all the votes are tallied in Alaska and North Carolina if the current leaders hold.

Democrats will need to win both of Georgia’s seats to secure control of the chamber with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris.

The stakes are enormous. If Republicans hold one or both seats, Biden would be the first president since 1989 to enter office without full control of Congress, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., would have power over his legislative agenda, cabinet picks and judicial nominees.

The entire political world will begin to focus exclusively on Georgia for the next two months as this campaign begins to rage. Money is already pouring in, advertising has already started, and both national parties are shifting personnel to come up with a battle plan.

Aside from the presidential race, Democrats have not had good luck when it comes to winning statewide races or special elections in Georgia. Jon Ossoff, the Democratic challenger to David Purdue, lost a special election in Georgia’s 6th district for a U.S. House seat back in 2017 despite massive financial support with national fundraising. In the end, GA-6 was too Republican for Democrats to overcome, even with an unprecedented amount of money for a House race.

More recently, in 2018, Democrat Stacey Abrams lost the race for Governor in the state by some 55,000 votes, marking a high point for Democrats statewide up until the current presidential race.

Both parties will be highly motivated for these two Senate runoff seats with so much at stake for each side.