Who Might Replace Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker?

With Democrats slated to hold a slim majority in the House, it’s likely or at least plausible that Nancy Pelosi will retain her speakership. There is, however, some growing unrest in the Democratic caucus based on the outcome of the 2020 election. While House Democrats will retain control, some party members may be looking for new leadership given the unexpected inroads being made by Republicans in crucial swing districts.

According to reports, Pelosi intends to run for Speaker again, calling the election a “mandate” on Democrats to deliver:

Nancy Pelosi is seeking reelection for her position as speaker of the House, after Democrats maintained their majority in this year’s elections with only a few losses. Pelosi sent a personalized letter to each Democratic member asking for their support, saying that Democrats now had a “mandate” with a majority in the House and with former Vice President Joe Biden likely to win the presidency.

In her letter, Pelosi said she wanted to “harness the extraordinary vision, values and vibrancy of our Caucus to secure the progress that the American people deserve.”

“In that spirit, I am writing to request your support to be re-elected as Speaker. I do so with the utmost respect for the diverse viewpoints of our Democratic Caucus, the gravity of this role and the urgency of the challenges ahead,” Pelosi said.

Not everyone is on board with rubber-stamping Pelosi at the helm again. She’ll need 218 votes to maintain her role, but there might be some wobbly Democrats who, if they side with Republicans, could theoretically deny her the Speakership.

Spoiler alert: It won’t be someone like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, she’s too controversial to lead the caucus even within her own party. Moderate Democrats who hold seats in swing districts can sometimes barely deal with Pelosi, let alone a possible replacement pushing a more activist progressive agenda.

One name being floated? Hakeem Jeffries of New York’s 8th congressional district which straddles parts of Brooklyn and Queens. Some unnamed Democrats have begun working to whip up some support, or at least gauge possible support for Jeffries replacing Pelosi:

House Democrats are discussing whether to replace Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House, after Republicans scored unexpected victories on Tuesday, cutting into Democrats’ majority. That’s according to The Hill, which reports two unnamed congress members have been approaching colleagues and asking them to back House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries as the next House speaker.

At various times, Pelosi has angered members to her left and right in her caucus. Some moderate Democrats see her as lacking the willpower to control the progressive wing, while the progress wing paints Pelosi as prone to caving toward moderate members and ignoring action items on the progressive agenda.

In the end, it all might be moot as the coalitions seem ready to back Pelosi despite a lot of early handwringing. Even Rep. Seth Moulton, who previously attempted to oust Pelosi twice in favor of new leadership, appears to be in her corner:

In an interview Friday with GBH News, the Salem Democrat said he will vote for Pelosi to be House speaker of the upcoming 117th Congress. According to Moulton, the 80-year-old California congresswoman is the “is the best person to hold the caucus together” to accomplish President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda.

“Holding the caucus together is one of the most important — and as the caucus call yesterday demonstrated, hardest — things we have to do right now,” Moulton told GBH, referring to a conference call Thursday among House Democrats during which several more moderate members of the party clashed with its more outspoken progressives.

Democrats have little choice right now but to back someone that already knows how to run the House and keep Democratic votes in line. Pelosi is controversial, sometimes within her own party, but she’s been arguably effective for the past two years battling with President Trump.

Some of the issue over Pelosi’s tenure was settled in 2018 when Democrats returned to power in the House. At that time, facing a potential revolt, Pelosi agreed to serve a maximum of four years as Speaker as a concession to a group of House members forming an argument against her (from 2018):

Nancy Pelosi is doing exactly what she said she wouldn’t in order to secure the votes she needs to be elected speaker — putting an end date on her tenure as the top House Democratic leader.

Under an agreement reached with seven Democrats who opposed her speaker bid, Pelosi will back term limits for the top three Democratic leaders. The limit she has agreed to will prevent her from serving as speaker beyond another four years.

Serving her remaining two years from 2020 to 2022 was part of the agreement made in 2018. Despite Democrats losing a dozen seats or so last Tuesday, Pelosi still remains the only front runner and obvious choice on the Democratic side to once again become Speaker of the House for the 117th Congress.