Georgia Senate Runoff Elections: What’s Happening Today?

Over the weekend, Donald Trump browbeat Georgia Attorney General Brad Raffensperger for over an hour. That was after Raffensperger refused to answer the phone a dozen times. On the phone, was Donald Trump, Chief-of-Staff Mark Meadows, and a couple of DC attorneys. The purpose was to intimidate and browbeat Raffensperger to do something to undo last month’s election in Georgia.

Of course, that’s just a side-show. Today’s election in Georgia will determine whether President Joe Biden will be able to enact his programs, or be stonewalled at every turn. Currently, there are 52 Republican Senators and 48 Democrats..

But if the two seats of incumbent Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are won by the Democrats, the count will be 50-50, and Vice President Kamala Harris will be able to break the tie, making it a 51-50 vote.

LIVE RUNOFF RESULTS

Polls close in Georgia tonight at 7 pm ET. Watch live below from CBSN for coverage of results as they become available. 

THE RUNOFFS

What do we know so far?

Three million people have already voted in the runoff races, nearly 40 percent of all the registered voters in the state, according to data compiled by the University of Florida’s U.S. Elections Project. That total surpasses the 2.1 million ballots cast in the state’s last Senate runoff election, which happened in 2008.

The early voting data suggests that the races are very competitive. There are some indications that Democrats had a bigger share of the early-voting electorate than they did in the general election, raising hopes for a party that has traditionally been the underdog in runoff races. The Atlanta area, the Democrats’ political base, has seen some of the highest turnout rates in the state’s early voting. . . Absentee ballots must be received by mail or placed in a drop box by 7 p.m. Tuesday to be counted. . .

The outcome now depends on whether Republicans. . .vote in higher numbers on election day and hope that President Trump’s rally on Monday in Dalton, a city in the northwest, will push more Republicans to the polls. . .

In November, Mr. Perdue received 49.7 percent of the vote, just short of the majority he would have needed to avoid a runoff, while his challenger, Mr. [Jon] Ossoff, had 47.9 percent — a difference of about 88,000 votes. The field was more crowded in the other Senate contest: Mr. [Raphael] Warnock finished with 32.9 percent of the vote and Ms. Loeffler with 25.9 percent.

While Democrats sent in the majority of the mail-in votes last month, they are not doing as well in the runoff. The number of ballots is 23% lower now than then.

GOP HEADACHES

However, Republicans have internal problems. Some Republicans are reacting to Trump’s intimidation and condemnation of their top State officials. But they have another problem. Trump’s defenders are calling on Republicans to boycott the vote.

Calls by attorneys Lin Wood and Sydney Powell for Georgia voters to boycott two crucial Senate runoffs in January are sparking panic among Republicans, who fear that the duo’s remarks could cost them much-needed votes. . . they turned heads on Wednesday when they urged Trump’s supporters at a rally in Alpharetta, Ga., not to vote in the January runoffs to protest the state’s elections process. . .

Wood also turned his ire on Loeffler and Perdue, who are both facing competitive runoff elections against well-funded Democrats in January that will determine the balance of power in the Senate in 2021 and beyond.

He urged voters to withhold support from the two Republican incumbents unless they demand that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) call a special session of the state General Assembly to effectively overturn President-elect Joe Biden’s win in Georgia.

NATIONAL ATTENTION

All eyes are on Georgia. The State has been so solidly Republican for decades that it has been mostly ignored in national elections. Not this year. Big money is being spent, there’s a lot of door-knocking, even more flyers on doorknobs, radio. TV, and Internet ads. All roads lead to Georgia. And that includes the top candidates in last month’s election, according to Atlanta’s Channel 11.

With all eyes on Georgia ahead of Tuesday’s US Senate runoffs, the scramble is on for candidates and their respective political parties.

On Sunday, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris was in Savannah, rallying support for Democratic candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

On Monday, the final day before the runoff election, dueling rallies across the state include President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and President-elect Joe Biden. 

THE POLLS

What do the polls say? FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver’s site) shows that both races are very close, with all four candidates taking the lead at some point. The latest figures show Democrat Ossoff leading Republican Perdue, in the regular election—49.1% to 47.4%. That’s well within the typical “margin of error” of 3%. More importantly, 3.5% are still undecided.

Meanwhile, Warnock is leading Loeffler in the special election—49.4% to 47.2%. Again, there’s a 3% margin of error, and 3.4% undecided.

How important is the margin of error? We could see Ossoff win with 52.1% or Perdue could win with 50.4%. Either outcome would be considered “on target.” Likewise, Loeffler could win with 50.2% or Warnock could win by 52.1%–and either would be considered accurately forecast.

Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics has Ossoff ahead of Perdue, 49.5% to 48.5%; and Warnock ahead of Loeffler, 49.8% to 48.5%.

Again, all of these numbers are a statistical tie. Any of the four candidates could come out on top, with the polls considered correct.

BETTING SITE

We check in on the betting site, PredictIt, from time to time. A few days ago, the site seemed to be predicting that Warnock would beat Loeffler, but Perdue would beat Ossoff. But that was before Perdue’s brush with Covid. Now, Warnock is slightly favored over Loeffler—53 cents to 52 cents; but Ossoff is now favored over Perdue 63 cents to 40 cents.

We should note that the betting site has been far less correct in its predictions, compared to the polls. That’s because many bettors let their emotions get in the way.

At this point, there’s no way of knowing who will win the runoff elections. Democrats are running uphill, since Georgia has been solidly Republican, and it’s possible that it went for Biden only to spite Trump. Also, historically, Democrats just don’t show up for runoff elections. Dem turnout has always been low.

More importantly, Democrats would have to win BOTH seats. If Republicans can take just one, Mitch McConnell will be the most powerful politician in Washington.