Will Gavin Newsom Win or Lose His Recall Vote Today?

The political world is watching the state of California today to see how Gov. Gavin Newsom fares in a recall vote that could end up removing him from office. The effort started in response to some of Newsom’s draconian Covid lockdown measures and a general sense that the state has been heading in the wrong direction. With businesses continually under pressure from Covid shutdowns and the economy sputtering, Newsom’s approval numbers were taking a nosedive in early 2021.

Just a few months ago, the vote looked iffy for Newsom, with many polls showing his chance of reaching the 50% threshold to retain the governorship in doubt. However, recent polling indicates a double-digit lead, in some instances, for the “No, Do Not Remove” option to keep Newsom as Governor.

As it stands now, while some of Newsom’s policies have drawn criticism, often from his own Democrat voters, the state is presently sitting in a reasonably good position related to Covid, and many voters are giving the governor credit:

With polls now showing Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom ahead by double-digit margins on the eve of California’s much-hyped recall election, voters here seem ready to reject the laissez-faire COVID-19 policies that have failed to contain huge summer surges in Republican-led states such as Florida — and vindicate the Golden State’s more careful approach to the hypercontagious Delta variant.

Their verdict could have national implications for both Democrats and Republicans heading into the 2022 midterm elections.

“No Republican running for governor could possibly have defeated Gavin Newsom in the recall election, but COVID could have,” Dan Schnur, a former spokesman for Republican former California Gov. Pete Wilson and the late GOP Sen. John McCain who teaches politics at several leading California universities, recently said on Yahoo News’ “Skullduggery” podcast. “The reason it’s not is because voters here have come to conclude that he is doing a much better job on it than they’d thought last spring and last winter.”

Newsom’s strong position in the recall vote today may be attributable to some basic political science principles. For one, timing is everything. If the recall vote was held four months ago, or six months ago, Newsom very well could have gone down in defeat. Republicans were very energized, and a swatch of candidates stepped forward as possible replacements.

Today, however, recent polling gives Newsom a pretty comfortable edge, according to the latest numbers from the RealClearPolitics average:

So, what happened to the “Remove” momentum? How did Newsom go from running a single-digit deficit in support to a double-digit lead in weeks? In short, it comes down to the usual partisan divides.

On the “remove Newsom” side, the most prominent opponent is conservative radio host Larry Elder. While popular in GOP circles and on the radio, Elder has his baggage, and despite being a California native, couldn’t overcome the usual partisan split of the state. Furthermore, Elder faced a series of bad headlines and scandalous allegations in recent weeks, clearly aimed at derailing his trajectory.

Back in early August, Newsom was on shaky ground in some respects with polls indicating a 50/50 split between the “Remove” and “Keep” options. Then, as it look liked Newsom was facing a real challenge, several nationally known Democrats started to get involved and campaign on his behalf:

A few weeks of frenzied media coverage followed, fueled in part by a subsequent batch of superior surveys suggesting that revved-up recall proponents could theoretically prevail if Newsom’s far larger but less-engaged base failed to turn out.

But since then — with the emergence of right-wing Republican radio host Larry Elder as Newsom’s likeliest replacement, with the last-minute onslaught of Newsom’s own multimillion-dollar get-out-the-vote effort, and with the arrival on the ground and on the airwaves of a who’s who of national Democratic leaders, including Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris — California Democrats appear to have shaken off their summer stupor.

California is a very lopsided partisan state. It’s like Texas – in reverse – but multiplied by ten in favor of Democrats. For the “Remove” side to win, it’s not enough just to win with every Republican vote in the state. Democrats and independents would need to sour on Newsom enough to either stay home or vote to kick him out.

In the end, it looks like Democrats will gin up enough interest on their side to keep Newsom firmly planted in Sacramento.

Even President Biden got in on the action Monday, speaking for Newsom at a campaign event comparing a vote for the “Remove” side to a vote for Donald Trump. Literally:

BIDEN: "I'm gonna make this as simple as I can: You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor or you'll get Donald Trump. It's not a joke." pic.twitter.com/zLwK6FxRbB

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 14, 2021

For the past several months, the chance, even slight, that California could remove another governor and replace him with a Republican was creating warning signs for Democrats heading into 2022. However, they say all politics are local, and the recall race in California may end up being less of a national referendum and more of the typical partisan lineup of a state that voted 63% for Joe Biden in 2020.