What else can he possibly say? Admit he’s done as a President and wait around for a few years during his self-imposed lame-duck presidency? Of course he’s going to say he’s running for re-election in 2024 right now, it would be political malpractice to say otherwise.
The funny part is that despite Biden personally reassuring political insiders within his own party, many of them simply don’t believe him or don’t see how it’s possible that in another two years, Biden will be hopping around the campaign trail.
Many Democrats don’t buy it for painfully obvious reasons, whether it’s health or the political reality developing around the White House:
But interviews with 28 Democratic strategists and officials, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more frankly, show that the assurances have not stopped the internal debate over whether Biden will appear on the ticket.
Some Democrats take a skeptical view of any public and private signals Biden and his team send about reelection, reasoning that there is an incentive for them to project interest in a second term, regardless of his true intent, to avoid weakening his standing. Another presidential bid, others worry, would involve a much more rigorous schedule than the relatively calm 2020 campaign, which was largely conducted remotely because of the covid-19 pandemic.
The campaign trail in 2024 will most assuredly look nothing like the campaign trail of 2020, which was shut down almost entirely during the crucial portion of the Democratic primary due to fears and orders relating to Covid-19. Biden, a candidate prone to gaffes and misstatements when he rambles on publicly, was able to spend most of the 2020 campaign doing video appearances and tightly controlled interviews from the comfort of his Delaware basement.
The 2024 campaign will not be so kind, forcing Biden to actually make appearances, defend his terrible record, take questions, and issue statements publicly. In fact, he’ll be required to actually be seen publicly for more than two hours a day or voters will have less confidence than they do now about his health and mental fitness. For a man who will be 82 in 2024, the rigors of a genuine presidential campaign don’t seem physically possible.
Then, there are the political considerations. Biden’s brand is already destroyed. The “pragmatic empathetic centrist” has been replaced with the “bumbling careless swamp dweller” beholden to the far left factions within his party. He’s failing, and his policies are failing. His Vice President is failing. The current economic outlook is grim, and if Democrats get wiped out in 2022 losing the House and possibly the Senate, Biden will have even less backing to run in 2024.
Some within Biden’s inner circle think the possibility of him running in 2024 is so absurd, it’s already a quietly-understood foregone conclusion he won’t do it:
One Democrat involved in campaigns said they couldn’t think of a single person they had spoken to in the last month who considers the possibility of Biden running again to be a real one.
“I hear this question get asked every day,” said another Democratic veteran of recent presidential campaigns, about whether Biden will run for reelection. “No one ever asked that question about Barack Obama. No one ever asked that question about Donald Trump.”
Florida trial lawyer John Morgan, who was a top 2020 Biden donor, said he was unsure whether Biden would seek reelection.
“What is his health going to be in the next three years?” he wondered aloud. “All you have to do is look at the mortality tables in America to understand what I’m saying.”
If, as his advisors say, health isn’t a concern, then politically speaking, Biden would need a serious turnaround to fix his approval numbers and stop the damage he’s still inflicting on the country. President Obama never saw these kinds of numbers as some of his unpopular policies never seemed to rub off on him. He had a Teflon quality, like Ronald Reagan. Biden doesn’t have that luxury or ability to separate himself.
It would be a political disaster right now for Democrats if Biden openly admitted he wasn’t sure he could run in 2024. His administration would be over, and his legislative agenda would come to a creeping halt. Democrats would look like they nominated a dud, which they did, but this would be undeniable proof.
Behind the scenes, Democrats will be scrambling to determine how best to manage this transition, likely to be announced in 2023 if Biden is not running for re-election. Will the Democratic establishment and party officials lineup behind Vice president Kamala Harris, or is there a chance for an open primary? Only time will tell, but we may be headed for a unique situation if the sitting president decides to bow out before seeking a second term, something that is extremely rare in American politics.
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