Midterm elections can be hard to gauge which is one reason why pollsters use the “generic ballot” question to determine which party may be favored to win the bulk of upcoming congressional races. The simple question, posed to voters across the country, is which party do you intend to vote for in the upcoming 2022 midterm election? This question has correctly predicted political waves, such as Democrats taking the House in 2006, and Republicans taking it back in 2010 and making more gains in 2014.
Looking ahead to 2022, the generic ballot question has been swinging hard in favor of Republicans taking back control of the House with the potential for a historic sweep next year. Just how bad is it looking for Democrats? The most recent polling on the question, courtesy of ABC News and the Washington Post, gives Republicans a 10-point lead on the generic ballot question, a number which is bigger than a 2014-style monumental victory for the GOP:
Republicans usually trail or tie among “U.S. adults,” but in this case, they still lead. Among likely voters, as in people that actually bother to vote, a 10-point lead a year from the election portends a terrible political environment ahead for Democrats. That ten points could be cut in half by then, or it could expand depending on how badly President Biden continues to manage the economy and drive runaway inflation.
For some perspective, in 2014, Republicans were winning this question by only 2.4 points on average and went on to expand gains made in 2010 and take control of the Senate.
If the GOP is truly in this landslide territory, the public has already soured tremendously on the Biden agenda which includes everything from Aghanistan to vaccine mandates, not to mention his legislative priorities. Perhaps the most overriding issue, however, is the economy and inflation. As Americans continue to see increases at the gas pump and grocery store, with a tone-deaf response from Washington, Democrats will see their soft support continue to deteriorate.
There are other polling bits buried within the ABC/Washington Post numbers that also spell doom around the electoral battlefield for Democrats.
Republicans are sitting at a whopping 23-point advantage in Senate battleground states, meaning the GOP could conceivably take both chambers in 2022:
Washington Post/ABC News poll: Republicans lead Democrats on the 2022 Generic Ballot by 10(!), 51-41.
In the Senate battlegrounds (AZ, FL, GA, NC, NV, PA, WI) the GOP leads by 23(!), 58-35.
It's just one poll a year out, but these are not wave numbers. They are tsunami numbers.
— The Wokest Numbersmuncher (@NumbersMuncher) November 14, 2021
Yes, it’s a year out, so Democrats will argue that these numbers will improve as more of Biden’s unpopular agenda starts paying dividends early next year. That could be true, or it could also be that over-promising on relief for things like gas and grocery prices, then under-delivering could make matters worse for the President’s party.
Beyond control of the House or Senate, Biden is now underwater on every major issue including handling Covid and the economy, and his job approval in general:
New WP/ABC poll has Biden job approval 41-53. On handling of economy: 39-55. On handling of pandemic: 47-49. Plus, 59% worry Biden will 'do too much to increase the size and role of government in US society.' And this is big: Generic ballot R 51 D 41. https://t.co/g7zMrV05Sk
— Byron York (@ByronYork) November 14, 2021
If it boils down to the economy, then Democrats are toast as it appears voters believe they’re severely overreaching with sweeping legislation aimed at adding vast new entitlement programs destined to cost trillions for decades to come. If the answer to rebuilding America’s economy after Covid is to help private businesses flourish again, a growing government fueled by left-wing social programs is a clear recipe for electoral disaster.
Could this turn around by November 2022? Maybe. But a lot of this is already baked in. Republicans could screw things up before then, perhaps by overplaying their opposition tactics or losing sight of the important issues and letting Democrats regain some ground. On the other hand, the Biden administration has proven its only adeptness is at laughing in the face of the American voter when questioned on the issues that affect people most. This is not a good look for a party eager to show it can govern effectively and handle the economy.
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