2022 Georgia Governor Race Seen as “Wild Ride”

The big news in actual politics last week was that Stacy Abrams declared herself a candidate for governor of Georgia. Democrat Abrams barely lost in her attempt in 2018, losing to Republican Brian Kemp. But next year’s race may not be a rerun of 2018. In fact, it’s not assured that the incumbent Kemp will get the nomination again.

Kemp already has an announced primary opponent in Democrat-turned-Republican Vernon Jones, but his real competition is likely to come from Donald Trump’s choice, David Perdue. Trump blames Kemp for his losing Georgia in the 2020 election, and has said he’d prefer Abrams to Kemp.

POLLS

However, Newsweek reports that Kemp is leading in the polls.

The most recent survey of Georgians’ views of the upcoming race suggests Kemp would be well positioned to defeat Abrams in a rematch. In a poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in November, Abrams trailed Kemp by 3 points among likely voters in the state. Abrams was supported by just 44 percent of likely voters, compared with 47 percent who backed Kemp.

Meanwhile, the same poll showed Abrams performing substantially better against Republican rival Vernon Jones. Until January, Jones identified as a Democrat, but he endorsed Trump and promoted the former president’s baseless claims of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election. Now, Jones is seeking the GOP nomination for governor. . .

YouGov America tracking polling shows that Abrams has a relatively low favorability rating. As of late October, just 36.2 percent of Americans viewed the Democrat favorably. Meanwhile, nearly an equal amount—35.7 percent—viewed her unfavorably. . .

Before that, the most recent poll regarding the governor’s race was conducted in early January. That survey, by the University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ Lee Business School, showed Kemp 4 points ahead of Abrams with likely voters in Georgia.

BETTING ODDS

That’s the polls. How about the oddsmakers? Betway says she has a good chance to win in 2022, due to changes in Georgia demographics, giving her 11-8 odds. However, PredictIt bettors are solidly behind the Republican candidate, betting 63 cents for the Republican and only 43 cents for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Also, this will be the first major election after Georgia’s new voter law.

In Abrams’ run, we’ll have a real-time test of whether Republican efforts to block voters from the polls can be overcome without federal intervention. . .

Kemp and Georgia’s GOP-dominated Legislature have made a win for Abrams even more of an uphill climb. In March, Georgia became one of 19 states so far this year to enact new election laws restricting voters’ ability to cast their ballots, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. (Georgia’s law also made it easier for the Legislature to take over local election boards, raising the possibility of Republicans manipulating the outcomes of races.)

Even with the polls, oddsmakers, and the new voter law in his corner, Kemp is not a shoo-in. WRLB says it’s going to be a “wild ride.”

Brian Robinson, a Republican operative and former Communications Director for Gov. Nathan Deal, says get ready for what could be the wildest of political years. . .

“If we have a Perdue vs. Kemp, and then the Republican vs. Abrams race, it is going to be wall-to-wall coverage of Georgia politics, not just in the Columbus media market and the Atlanta media market and Augusta, but in Washington, New York, LA and Chicago. Everybody is going to be talking about us,” Robinson said.

Robinson was referring to David Perdue, the third Republican in the race.

Former U.S. senator  plans to challenge Georgia governor Brian Kemp in the Republican primary next year, according to reports from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Politico. . .

Perdue was recruited to run against the governor in the looming primary by Donald Trump and might be getting additional fundraising and endorsement support from the former president, reports Politico; the former Georgia senator, who was defeated by Democrat Jon Ossoff in a January runoff election, told allies he was motivated to join the race because he fears Kemp couldn’t repeat his victory over Adams.

Business Insider has reported that Fox’s Sean Hannity has called Kemp to “bow out.”

Fox News host Sean Hannity on Wednesday called on Republican Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia to nix his 2022 reelection campaign so conservatives can rally behind former Sen. David Perdue to face Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams. . .

Due to Kemp’s refusal to help Trump overturn President Joe Biden’s electoral victory in the state last fall, the governor has become a political pariah among many GOP activists, despite his continued embrace of conservative policies

And that’s Kemp’s biggest problem.

A simmering war within the Georgia Republican Party is about — what else? — Donald Trump. . . At the center of the potential fight is Trump’s false contention that the election was stolen, with the narrow victory for Joe Biden in Georgia as a central part of the tale. Despite Kemp’s call for an audit that turned up no substantial change in the overall vote count, Trump continues to blame the governor for not contesting the results enough and has vowed to back a primary challenger. . .

“I would hate to see two good men run against each other,” said Eric Tanenblatt, a veteran GOP strategist and former chief of staff to former Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue. “Having watched the Republican Party become the dominant party in Georgia, it’s puzzling to me we would see a sitting incumbent Republican governor be challenged by another Republican.”

“Governor Kemp and Marty proudly campaigned hard for — and with — former Senator Perdue and Bonnie throughout the 2020 election cycle,” said Tate Mitchell. “Both the Governor and the First Lady were honored when Senator Perdue told them personally that he would fully support their campaign for re-election earlier this year.”

Despite attacks from Democrats, from Trump, and even within his own party, Kemp is not giving up. Here’s what he had to say about having Abrams enter the race:

“With Stacey Abrams in control, Georgia would have shut down, students would have been barred from their classrooms, and woke politics would be the law of the land and the lesson plan in our schools. Her far-left agenda of open borders, gun confiscation, high taxes, and anti-law enforcement policies don’t reflect who we are as Georgians. Stacey’s never-ending campaign for power has already hurt Georgia businesses and cost our state millions – all in service to her ultimate ambition of becoming president of the United States. Next November’s election for governor is a battle for the soul of our state. I’m in the fight against Stacey Abrams, the failed Biden agenda, and their woke allies to keep Georgia the best place to live, work and raise a family.”