Dems Fear Epic Midterm Losses Due to Retirements and Redistricting

While President Biden continues his descent into dismally low approval numbers, Congress limps along making noise yet accomplishing very little. For many Congressional Democrats, the writing is already on the wall in 2022 with the party looking at steep losses and almost assuredly losing control of the House of Representatives, and quite possibly the Senate.

These facts on the ground coupled with a wave of Republican enthusiasm have driven several prominent Democrats into early retirement. Add to this the reality of redistricting, which by itself may give Republicans a strong upper hand next year, and Democrats have lost almost any hope of averting a total wipeout.

Reports now indicate that among the party faithful, there is very little to be excited about for Democrats in 2022. The President is losing ground, and the party has no real leadership or focus beyond progressive pet projects which are largely unpopular.

At this point, Democrats can simply hope to appear competitive, despite sinking morale and a wave of retirements:

Morale in the House is already markedly low, but as Democrats look ahead to what could become a trying midterm election cycle, the overwhelming belief is that the wave of retirements has yet to crash.

That was captured on Monday when two Democratic members announced they would not seek reelection in November.

First was Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy, who announced she would not seek reelection after three terms in the House. She stated that her time in office was both “the honor of my life” and “incredibly challenging for my family and me,” but her decision comes as the Republican-led legislature in Florida has taken interest in redrawing the district she represents, a move that would have made it harder for the Democrat to hold onto the Orlando-area seat.

Then came California Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, who said in a statement Monday night that “after thirty years in the House of Representatives, the time has come for me to spend more time with my family.”

And then on Tuesday morning, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed New Jersey Democratic Rep. Albio Sires would also retire.

So far, 23 members of the House Democratic Caucus have announced they will not seek reelection.

It is stunning to watch the early parade of retirements from Congressional Democrats seeing no path forward. As more retirements are expected early next year, the situation could be worse in the spring when the midterms start to come into focus.

Within the Democratic caucus, there appears to be no strong future leadership as senior members retire, leaving behind a cadre of loudmouth junior members who haven’t yet earned the respect of their colleagues:

“We have got a problem here,” retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos said of the general morale inside the House. “There are way too many people serving as members of Congress right now who I not only don’t look up to, I have zero respect for. And I’m saddened to have to say that.”

Between retirements and redistricting, Republicans may already have earned their House majority in 2022 on paper. A lot can happen between now and then, but the country would have to make a complete U-turn to reverse the sour feeling Americans have for Biden and his agenda.

Ironically, as more and more states lean toward reforming their redistricting process to make the system fairer, Democrats are getting hurt the worst after years of using the system to their advantage:

They still are. If blue states hadn't embraced redistricting reform more than red states and Dems had the ability to gerrymander CA, CO, NJ, VA & WA, they could easily seize ~10 more seats and would have a much better shot at retaining the majority in 2022. https://t.co/3MU8q1CVsb

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 22, 2021

Democrats have much to fear in 2022, and the playing field will only become more difficult moving forward. Republicans can still screw it up, but right now Dems are driving the car and can’t seem to keep it out of the ditch.