Have Florida Democrats Given Up on Beating Ron DeSantis?

The short answer is yes, they seem to be conceding the state to current Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He remains popular, and his fundraising ability is off the charts. Furthermore, the majority of Floridians seem to appreciate a liberty-minded approach to Covid policy despite heavy criticism from Democrats nationally. The Sunshine State has become a tough venture for Democrats in recent years. When DeSantis won the governor’s race in 2018 with a strong campaign and a fighting spirit amid a bad year for Republicans nationwide, it signaled somewhat of a sea change where Democrats began falling out of touch with Florida voters.

Now, amid turmoil within the Florida Democratic Party, fingers are being pointed and scapegoats are being gathered for what some expect to be a good year for DeSantis as he heads toward reelection in 2022:

The Florida GOP recently overtook Democrats in voter registration numbers for the first time in decades. Gov. Ron DeSantis is demolishing his three Democratic challengers in fundraising for next year’s governors race. And Democrats have yet to recruit a full slate of candidates to challenge the three Republicans who sit on the state Cabinet.

“If Florida has a bloodbath come November … that’s going to be a concern, not just for myself but I’m sure for many Democrats,” said State Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Miami Gardens Democrat.

The current head of the Florida Dems, former Miami mayor Manny Diaz, is facing somewhat of a mutiny among his own party for falling behind in voter outreach and messaging:

The angst surrounding Florida Democrats was on display during their big Leadership Blue conference held this past weekend at an Orlando resort hotel as they delved into everything from organizing to message training.

During caucus meetings and breakout sessions, Democrats fretted over whether they were doing enough outreach to voters — such as those in Black churches well ahead of Election Day — and whether Florida was still competitive.

“I call B.S.,” Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) said about the state’s battleground status. There were even rumors of a push for a no-confidence vote against Diaz at the state executive committee meeting, although it never materialized.

Florida has been a mixed bag for Democrats over the years. They held one Senate seat for 20 years in Bill Nelson, until he retired in 2018. After Nelson, the seat changed hands back to Republican when Rick Scott, former Florida governor, won handily over former Florida governor Charlie Crist.

Speaking of Crist, this brings up another era of strange Florida politics. Having run and won the governor’s seat as a Republican, Crist then changed affiliation to independent, and finally Democrat. Since that change, he hasn’t won anything statewide.

Florida’s population and politics have trended red, in opposition to many national trends of states like Virginia trending blue. DeSantis’ style came in at the right time, and he’s been a shrewd politician, always aware of what notes to hit and how to best appeal to his populist base and Republican voters statewide. As a result, he has drawn in independents as well while leaving Democrats grasping for a voting base in a state that went 3 points for Donald Trump in 2020.

The whole of this is to say that Democrats will probably decide it’s not worth wasting money in Florida next year when they should be spending a lot in Georgia instead. Stacey Abrams has a much better shot at becoming the next prominent southern state Democratic governor than any Florida Democrat.

Democrats are aware of this, and despite trying to label DeSantis as “DeathSantis” for his Covid policies, none of it is sticking. This is especially true as Covid has proven to be seasonal in nature and Florida is now experiencing low numbers of cases while deep-blue states like Michigan and Minnesota are being ravaged.

What’s their excuse? Government Covid policy only goes so far in controlling an airborne virus and people will do what they want to anyway. Better to err on the side of personal liberty and responsibility than heavy-handed tactics that don’t accomplish much more.

Democrats overplayed their hand against DeSantis, and they’re set to pay dearly for it in 2022 if he cruises to decisive reelection.