Listening to former President Donald Trump’s CPAC speech on Saturday night, you’d think he was already a declared candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination. Trump hinted as such numerous times, with lines like, “we’re going to do it again” or “when I’m your president,” implying that he has another presidential campaign in his sights.
The annual CPAC straw poll, which Trump has won for several years running, was no different in 2022 with the former president coming out on top. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the clear second choice, with the rest of the field in low single digits.
2022 CPAC Straw Poll Results
Source: PDF
- Donald trump 59.1%
- Ron DeSantis 28.4%
- Mike Pompeo 1.5%
- Rand Paul 1.3%
- Kristi Noem 1.2%
- Nikki Haley 1%
- Ted Cruz 0.8%
- Mike Pence 0.6%
- Glenn Youngkin 0.6%
- Tim Scott 0.6%
- Mitt Romney 0.4%
- Ben Carson 0.3%
- Tom Cotton 0.3%
- Marco Rubio 0.3%
- Rick Scott 0.2%
- Josh Hawley 0.2%
- Chris Christie 0.1%
- John Kasich 0%
- Larry Hogan 0%
- Other 1.5%
- Undecided 1.3%
With Trump in the mix, the rest of the field pales in comparison. It’s worth noting that CPAC taking place in Florida this year may offer DeSantis a little bit of a home-field advantage.
If Trump is taken out of the mix, the results are equally as lopsided for DeSantis with the rest of the field, getting single digits:
- Ron DeSantis 61.4%
- Mike Pompeo 6.3%
- Donald Trump Jr. 5.9%
- Ted Cruz 3.3%
- Rand Paul 3.3%
- Kristi Noem 3.1%
- Nikki Haley 2.1%
- Glenn Youngkin 1.6%
- Mike Pence 1.4%
- Josh Hawley 1.4%
- Tim Scott 1.0%
The rest of the list sits below 1%.
There clearly is little appetite among conservatives to nominate a Senator like Hawley, Cruz, or Cotton as the nominee. As is typical on the Republican side, enthusiasm exists for governors and those outside the sphere of Congress and the DC beltway.
Trump’s speech was filled with red meat tilted toward offense. On issue after issue, from Afghanistan to the economy to the current Russia-Ukraine situation, Trump was hitting Biden and progressive policies with blow after blow. The speech did not sound like it was coming from a politician ready to see the sun set on his political career.
With the continued polling support Trump is getting, making it through the 2024 Republican Primary with north of 50% support from the base seems entirely plausible and highly likely. No one else, save DeSantis, even comes close to touching that level of support from GOP voters.
There were numerous occasions during the speech where Trump stopped just short of the line between a declared candidate and a non-candidate.
Trump seems to be chomping at the bit to start the 2024 campaign, and the CPAC speech coupled with his continued public polling support, and now capped off by the straw poll indicates there is no one else in the Republican field with similar strength.
You can view the full CPAC straw poll results here which includes a range of questions on issues important to attendees.
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