Governor Larry Hogan, a unicorn Republican from the deep blue state of Maryland, will be term-limited come November. He has few options for higher office, but he took one of those paths off the table on Tuesday by saying that he has no plans to become a candidate for the U.S. Senate by challenging the current sitting Democrat, Chris Van Hollen.
Polls show Hogan with a strong chance of beating Van Hollen in a head-to-head matchup, potentially giving Republicans a chance to pick up a Senate seat in a deep blue state, further tipping the likelihood that the GOP could win control of both chambers in November.
However, Hogan says no to the Senate:
I want to let you know I will not be a candidate for the U.S. Senate. When I pledged to the people of Maryland that I was going to give this job everything I’ve got every single day that I’m given, I meant it—that commitment is more important to me than any political campaign. pic.twitter.com/M7J0AVCyfV
— Governor Larry Hogan (@GovLarryHogan) February 8, 2022
Being term-limited as governor means there is no higher office in Maryland for Hogan to seek. He’s always flirted with running for president, and it seems that demuring on the Senate run could be the way to set himself up for a presidential campaign in 2024.
It’s a shame, though, since Hogan has about zero chance of becoming the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, but at least a 50% chance of becoming the next Republican Senator from the state of Maryland.
As CBS News points out, Hogan likely has his sights set on the White House rather than the Senate chamber:
Hogan didn’t deny he is contemplating a 2024 GOP presidential bid — a campaign that would put him in Trump’s crosshairs, with whom he’s publicly disagreed on several subjects, drawing the ire of the former president, who is backing a different candidate than the governor in this year’s race to succeed Hogan.
“We have plenty of time to figure out what happens after” he steps down as governor in January 2023, he told CBS.
On Tuesday, Hogan told reporters that he will not make his decision to run for president based on whether or not Trump decides to run for the White House again.
“It would be based on whether I think that I can make a difference and whether it’s the right decision for me and my family,” Hogan said. “I wouldn’t care whether the former president runs or not.”
The real question here is whether Hogan has a lane in the Republican primary. If former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie runs, which seems like a possibility, that’s two northeast moderate to liberal Republicans vying for the same small slice of perhaps two percent of the GOP primary vote, to be generous. The Republican Party, at least in presidential election politics, is nowhere near Larry Hogan’s moderate Trump-bashing policies which played well in the state of Maryland.
It’s like Sen. Joe Manchin trying to run for the Democratic presidential nomination. West Virginia loves him, but the liberal base would never want to make him president since he’s too moderate.
In this case, Hogan is popular in Maryland, but he would never be popular among GOP primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.
Both Christie and Hogan have enjoyed their share of recent Trump-bashing which in this climate makes the likelihood of both launching a presidential campaign all that more expected. Again, though, where is the lane for either one?
Just examining our own aggregated polling data shows Christie averaging around 1.3% of support and Hogan at a stellar 1%.
Hogan’s dream of becoming president is over before it even begins. He should reconsider the Senate run if he wants to do something that has a greater chance of actually being successful. He can still be the Trump-bashing Senator from Maryland given plenty of time on CNN and MSNBC to hate on his own party, that won’t change.
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