Can Biden’s SOTU Approval Bump Last?

It has not been a happy year for Joe Biden. Covid looked beaten—then new variations arose, putting us behind masks again. And, of course, Afghanistan: our intelligence didn’t pick up on the fact that the Afghan president had been telling troops for weeks to just put down their weapons when the US leaves. They let the Taliban walk right to the capital, unimpeded. We should have known that.

Finally, inflation. Last year, there was fear of deflation—that prices would spiral downward, bankrupting everybody. But the big problem is the hangover from the Afghan and Iraq wars, like the high inflation of the 1970s, after the Vietnam War. And of course, Covid. It has disrupted everything. It will take a while to get back to “business as usual.” The point is, things are tough all over. Thus, Biden’s ratings have gone downhill steadily.

The surprising thing is that Biden got a large bump from the State of the Union speech. It’s not likely to last, if problems persist in the country and the world. Even so, the bump was surprising. The Hill notes that a Marist Poll found an eight-point bounce.

President Biden is seeing a boost to his approval rating following his first State of the Union address this week, with a poll released Friday showing him at 47 percent.

The latest NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist National Poll found that 47 percent of Americans surveyed approve of the job he is doing as president, which is a jump from the 39 percent approval rating he had in the same poll last month.

“This is an unusual bounce,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement. “It gets him back to where he was pre-Afghanistan.”. . .

The poll also found Biden’s approval rating is on the upswing on issues like Ukraine and COVID-19. Fifty-five percent of Americans approve of how he is handling the coronavirus pandemic, up from 47 percent in February.

Fifty-two percent approve of how he is handling the situation with Russia and Ukraine, up from 34 percent in February when tensions were simmering but Russia had not yet launched its invasion.

An overwhelming majority of Americans surveyed — 83 percent — also supported the United States’ and other allies’ economic sanctions against Russia.

Biden’s best rating comes from his handling of Russia, according to the poll.

83% of Americans support the economic sanctions imposed against Russia by the United States and its allies. Americans are also willing to make sacrifices in support of Ukraine. 69% of Americans, including 58% of Republicans, say they support economic sanctions against Russia even if it results in higher energy prices in the United States.

Of course, Forbes notes that Biden’s bump was due to Democrats and Independents,–Republicans, not so much. And while people are worried about inflation, they are surprisingly ok with rising gas prices (for now).

The increase was largely thanks to Democrats and Independents—whose approval of Biden went up by 11 points and 10 points, respectively—but Republican support also rose from 6% to 10% between last week and this week. . .

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a spike in gas prices—but many respondents don’t mind. A 69% majority of respondents said they support economic sanctions against Russia “even if it results in higher energy prices” at home, including 58% of Republicans.

Business Insider notes that the good news in higher job numbers and lower inflation have not been appreciated by Americans, because of the fear of inflation.

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Friday revealed that a robust 678,000 jobs were created in February 2022 — with the unemployment rate falling from 4% to 3.8% — rising.

Why the rise is so surprising:

Gallup Polling compared the public response to the last 35 State of the Union messages.

Trump was able to tout gains in the economy and stock market during his 2018 State of the Union. His job approval rating ticked up to 40% [TWO POINTS].

Obama did better with each of his State of the Union addresses—four points in 2016 and three points in 2015. But of all the other instances, from 1978 to 2014, presidents received NO bump at all, on average.

However, CNN says Biden’s uptick is due to more than a well-received speech.

But there are several other threads beyond a temporary State of the Union bump that suggest a Biden comeback could be in the works.

1) His handling of the Ukraine situation — leading an international coalition against Russia and imposing harsh economic sanctions all while refusing to commit American military forces — has won him positive reviews from Democrats and Republicans.

2) The US economy is clearly moving in the right direction — and fast. An eye-popping 678,000 jobs were added in February alone. The unemployment rate is now down to 3.8%, the lowest it’s been in two years.

3) Covid-19 is in retreat. Average daily case numbers are down to around 55,000 nationally, and a slew of states are getting rid of indoor mask mandates — making “normal” seem a whole lot more attainable.

Now, it’s worth noting that if the past two presidencies — Barack Obama and Donald Trump — have taught us anything, it’s that partisanship has hardened in the electorate. That trend leaves fewer independents and fence-sitters whose opinions of Biden can change based on external events.

That said, Biden’s numbers earlier in his term were in the mid-50s — he was at 54% approval in Gallup polling at roughly this time last year — which means some elasticity remains in the electorate.

Where does he go from here? A lot of a president’s popularity is really, pretty much, out of his hands. For instance, a president gets the blame if gas prices rise, but there’s almost nothing a president can do to lower gas prices, except open the strategic oil reserve, but that’s only a temporary solution, and does not have a large impact, anyway.

The fact that Biden’s numbers have dropped over the past year means that they could also go up, unlike Donald Trump’s, whose approval/disapproval ratings were almost a straight line for four full years. Biden’s fate will largely depend on Russia, Covid, and inflation.