Biden Approval Falls to 37% in Virginia Where He Won by 10 Points in 2020

Imagine winning a state by 10 points only to wind up falling so far just over a year later to be sitting at a 37% approval rating. That’s where Joe Biden is stuck in Virginia, and it’s a situation being replicated around the country. In fact, there remains only one single state, according to Civiqs, where Biden’s approval remains at or above 50%: Hawaii.

Otherwise, Biden’s toast when it comes to states that are anywhere close to “swing state” status. The end result is a widely depressed Democratic Party voting base and an extremely enthusiastic Republican Party ready to turn out in droves come November. Statements by prominent Democratic Senators like Debbie Stabenow telling people complaining about gas prices to buy a Tesla doesn’t help any.

Newly elected Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, in Virginia, is faring quite well in his new job. For Biden, however, a stone’s throw across the Potomac, the judgment from voters in his neighboring state is a bit harsher:

Youngkin’s approval rating in the poll out Friday did not change significantly from Roanoke College’s survey in February, with 53 percent of Virginians approving of his performance — similar to 50 percent in the earlier poll, and well within the poll’s margin of error.

Both polls had reflected similarly negative views of the performance of Biden, however, and the new Roanoke College survey finds that Biden’s approval rating is 37 percent among Virginians, while 57 percent disapprove, a wider disapproval margin than in the February Roanoke poll.

Gosh, that’s quite abysmal. The long and short of it for Biden and his party could be losing Congressional seats that weren’t even previously on the radar.

For example, in Virginia, only two races are in the “Toss Up” column according to Cook, the 2nd and the 7th congressional districts. Both districts will be much more favorable to Republicans this time around. The 2nd is an R+6 district and the 7th is now a D+2, both margins which should give the GOP an easy victory in a wave year.

The sleeper district in the Old Dominion may be the 10th, which is a tough climb for Republicans now with a district lean of approximately +9 for Democrats. However, looking a little more closely opens a very plausible path for Hung Cao, the newly chosen GOP 10th district nominee.

Youngkin only lost the current makeup of the 10th district by 2 points in 2021, a year that still saw decent Democratic turnout and Biden’s approval rating higher back in November. Now, however, Biden’s sinking like a rock tied to a lead pipe in Virginia and has lost 10 points or more since then.

If GOP turnout is strong, which has been the case, it’s entirely plausible that Republicans could gain three seats in Virginia alone, a seismic shift that would leave just four Democratic Congressional representatives in the whole state.

Maybe it’s a stretch to pick up Virginia’s 10th district, a bastion held by the GOP since 1980 until Democrat Jennifer Wexton took it over in 2018. However, if there’s a year to make it happen, perhaps it’s the year where Republicans are at their best position at this time in the cycle since 1938.