There’s plenty of leeway in that statement that the former president gave during a New York Magazine interview last week. The question in Donald Trump’s head is not “if” he’s running again in 2024, it’s “when” the announcement will take place.
The revelation even led at least one group to file an FEC complaint alleging that Trump’s hinting at a 2024 run gave him an unfair advantage without the burden of campaign finance law.
Here’s the exchange from the interview where Trump parses out the “if” versus “when” question and drops the bombshell:
“Look,” Trump said, “I feel very confident that, if I decide to run, I’ll win.”
I fixated on If I decide. Trump is less a politician than a live-action mythological creature, and so punditry and all of the standard forms of analyses tend to fail. What would factor into such a decision for such an unusual person? “Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision,” he said.
He wouldn’t disclose what he’d decided. Not at first. But then he couldn’t help himself. “I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after,” he said. “You understand what that means?” His tone was conspiratorial. Was he referring to the midterm elections? He repeated after me: “Midterms.” Suddenly, he relaxed, as though my speaking the word had somehow set it free for discussion. “Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision,” he said.
Announcing a run before the midterms seems unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility for Trump. On the other hand, waiting until after would basically clear the political landscape for him and all eyes would then be focused on the presidential race.
Odds of Trump announcing before the midterms are probably less than a 10% chance.
Announcing after the midterms but before the end of the year is probably a 40% chance.
Announcing in January or February of 2023 to essentially “clear the field” before others decide they might want to run, probably at least a 50% chance.
Announcing before the midterms would risk drowning in congressional coverage but would give Trump a bigger platform which is why it can’t be ruled out.
As noted above, a Democratic Super PAC is trying to force Trump’s hand to comply with FEC regulations or get him to back off:
A Democratic super PAC on Wednesday filed a lawsuit against the Federal Election Commission in a bid to force the agency to take action against former President Donald Trump for, in their view, essentially running for president without formally declaring himself a candidate.
The lawsuit from American Bridge 21st Century follows a March complaint with the commission, alleging that Trump is raising and spending big sums to promote a likely presidential campaign in 2024, while skirting federal campaign finance laws that require those who raise or spend more than $5,000 to register as a candidate.
The lawsuit was a direct response to the above-quoted article and Trump’s answer or non-answer. The FEC has been awfully loose with letting candidates skirt around acting and appearing to be running a presidential campaign so long as they haven’t said the words “I’m running for… [fill in the blank]”.
Trump said he has “decided” on running and he’ll announce his decision before or after the midterms. The question is whether he “goes before or after” the midterms. That statement could arguably refer to a decision to pass on a run.
The FEC lawsuit won’t go far but Trump’s words will reverberate further in the GOP field.
Some within GOP ranks, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have been almost taunting Trump and perhaps trying to encourage other candidates to eventually join the fray:
McConnell, who usually avoids commenting on the former president, predicted that the 2024 Republican primary won’t be a cakewalk for Trump if he runs again.
“I think we’re going to have a crowded field for president. I assume most of that will unfold later and people will be picking their candidates in a crowded primary field,” he told reporters when asked whether he would oppose Trump or stay neutral in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
McConnell’s warning, in other words, is that Trump shouldn’t expect a walk-off home run to take the 2024 presidential nomination. There will be work behind the scenes perhaps to promote an alternate, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, for example, that could unite the MAGA base and bring in centrists and Dems who wouldn’t vote for Trump.
Trump will continue the “will he/won’t he” game for months because he can. Nothing is forcing him to get in early as his main primary rivals, like DeSantis, are tied up in their own re-election battles.
For the time being, Trump has the ball in the GOP primary and no one else can touch it.
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