Being in trouble for a Democratic governor in New York basically means they’re not 30 points ahead in most polls.
For Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, running against Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, a recent Siena College survey showed the race much closer than some would expect.
While Democrats have the heavy edge in deep-blue New York, the state has suffered in recent years among a string of bad and/or corrupt Democratic governors leaving in disgrace and an ongoing stance of draconian Covid-19 lockdowns.
The parade of Democratic governor losers from Eliot Spitzer (sex scandal, resigned) to David Patterson (corrupt) to Andrew Cuomo (corrupt, murdering, sex scandal, resigned) has brought nothing but an embarrassment to the Empire State.
After Cuomo stepped aside, Hochul took over and was set to become some kind of “moderate” voice. On the contrary, Hochul continued with the hard-line Covid stances of mandates and shutdowns following Cuomo’s lead. She’s been better than the worst of the worst, but that’s not offering much.
Hochul currently has a lead in her bid to serve a complete term, but it’s not “insurmountable” according to pollsters and puts Zeldin within 14 at this point in the race when fewer people are paying attention:
New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul had a 14 percentage-point lead over Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, the Siena College Research Institute found in a poll released Tuesday
Hochul led 53 percent to 39 percent in the first public poll conducted since the June primaries and the first to survey likely general election voters.
While that’s a sizable lead for the incumbent, it’s also the third-best performance by a GOP nominee in a public gubernatorial poll in New York in the five elections since Republican Gov. George Pataki last ran in 2002. An outlier poll from Quinnipiac in 2010 found Andrew Cuomo with only a 6-point lead over Carl Paladino, and one from Siena a few days before Cuomo won the 2018 election by 22 points found him leading Marc Molinaro by 13 points.
“Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know most voters don’t really begin to focus on elections till after Labor Day,” Siena spokesman Steve Greenberg said in a release.
“Still, Hochul has an early — but certainly not insurmountable — lead. In fact, while Democrats have taken the last four gubernatorial elections, Zeldin’s current 14-point deficit matches the closest Republicans have come in those races, when Andrew Cuomo defeated Rob Astorino 54-40 percent in 2014. In August 2014, Cuomo led Astorino by 32 points, 58-26 percent.”
August is the doldrums for political news. Most people are getting their vacations in before the summer ends or worrying about other things like back to school and hanging out by the pool. The last thing voters want to do is talk politics when a pollster calls.
Still, it’s noteworthy that Zeldin is within the realm of possibility and Hochul doesn’t seem untouchable.
According to the crosstabs, almost all of Hochul’s support is from New York City while Zeldin leads, by a slimmer margin, in the suburbs and the rest of upstate New York:
Hochul led by a margin of 70 percent to 21 percent among New York City voters. Zeldin led 46 percent to 43 percent in the suburbs and 48 percent to 45 percent upstate.
George Pataki was the last Republican to win statewide in New York, a feat that hasn’t happened since 2002. Ever since that time, New York Republicans have been unable to find that moderate-leaning candidate that can excite the base and also turnover some moderates.
New York needs a Glenn Youngkin type to ignite excitement among voters who often sit out because they think their vote doesn’t matter. Zeldin has a heavy lift, but he would be smart to borrow a page from Youngkin’s Virginia playbook.
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