This must be one last gasp in late August when GOP insiders fear the worst while Democrats cling to some barely workable theory that they still have a convoluted path to hold the House.
With the generic ballot polling tightening, to be sure, as Democrats taking a momentary edge, Republicans are bracing for possible gains in the 15-30 seat range rather than the 60-seat range GOP Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had been predicting.
While inflation remains the top concern for voters, the abortion issue has been propping up Democrats despite President Biden’s momentous failures:
Last year, McCarthy bullishly predicted a 60-seat gain, a landslide that would give them a comfortable majority in a chamber where Republicans only need a net gain of four seats to take back power. But now, Republican sources believe that a gain of 15-30 seats is more likely, and they are not ruling out the possibility of a gain in the single digits, a thin majority that would almost certainly give McCarthy headaches.
According to the current groupthink within GOP strategist ranks, it’s the abortion issue hurting candidates the most across the country. That may be true, but it’s also fairly easy to explain as there are a couple of reasons for it.
The first reason is simply that many country-club Republicans do not consider abortion or other culture war issues to be issues worth fighting for. They see abortion as a “third rail” issue that shall not be touched under any circumstances.
The Supreme Court Dobbs ruling tore the protective barrier off that third rail forcing all sides to go on the record with their views on abortion. Is it murder or is it healthcare?
The late great Rush Limbaugh, the most-listened-to conservative talk show host of all time, used to say that he would get asked about abortion frequently by higher-ups in the Republican Party. Their take was often that if the GOP could just shed the perception as the “pro-life” party, it could make more inroads with voters who think abortion should be a constitutionally protected right but agree with conservative ideals on other topics.
As Limbaugh would reply, without the pro-life voting block in the GOP, Republicans would have a hard time winning much of anything so if they don’t stand for life, what else is there to stand for?
Limbaugh framed the issue well in a 2019 monologue reacting to the New York State Senate cheering for the passage of an abortion law which permitted the act right up until the point of birth. It’s worth a read.
With that in mind, some Republicans are becoming nervous that Biden’s terrible economy and record inflation can’t overcome the abortion issue:
And while there are clear signs that the overturning of Roe v. Wade has energized Democrats — as well as some independents and moderate Republicans — inflation remains a top concern for voters, and the GOP is confident it’s an issue where they have the upper hand.
Still, some nervous Republicans are calling for a strategic plan to deal with a shifting political landscape, especially when it comes to their message and response on abortion rights — which has so far been disjointed or altogether non-existent.
“We are losing ground because of it,” one GOP lawmaker told CNN. “Roe caught Republicans off guard and we haven’t used it to paint the left as extreme nor shown any sort of compassion on the issue.”
“Republicans want to say, ‘inflation,’ as if that solves all our problems. It doesn’t,” the member added.
The second reason why some Republicans are struggling with abortion is simply that they don’t know how to define the issue, defend the issue, or discuss the issue.
The overturning of Roe v. Wade exposed far more about left-wing extremes on abortion than anything proposed or enacted by red states in the past few months. Republicans have not figured out how to capitalize on that yet and make the point that many Democratic politicians would favor abortion on demand up to the point of birth, a position so far outside the mainstream of humanity that even liberal countries in Europe draw the line at 15 weeks in most instances.
If abortion is murder, then learn how to discuss and define it that way. If at some point, even many pro-choicers believe an unborn child is a living human in the womb, then they too draw a line of when a child should and should not be protected.
There is a point to be made that a good portion of Republican leadership was fine with Roe v. Wade as an “established law” because it basically took the issue off the table. Once it was overturned and sent back to the states, abortion and the question of when life begins are now fair game for political discussion.
Republicans need to start defining and defending their views on life and those views will not be in lockstep. There are plenty of moderates, like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine or Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, for example, that are basically pro-choice.
If the GOP stumbles over abortion it’s because some of the weak-kneed leadership has been exposed as passively or tepidly at peace with the gruesome practice.
Republicans will do better in November than predicted at the moment in late August. Biden’s “Inflation Reduction Act” is a joke that neither reduces inflation nor does much more than drop $700 billion on liberal pet projects.
Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan is still causing heartburn for Democrats who understand the double standard it sets and the extreme level of unfairness for the government to be handing out cash in loan forgiveness only to people who went too far in debt at overpriced colleges.
In other words, Democrats have the abortion issue, and nothing else.
Republicans have an argument that Biden’s first two years have been nothing but abject failure and voters needn’t look further than their wallets to see it.
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