Have the tables turned in the U.S. Senate race with Democrats now playing defense?
That’s certainly what it feels like in recent weeks. Despite ongoing assurances from the likes of Nate Silver, and others, that Democrats were well within positive odds of retaining the Senate, some party insiders around the country are getting nervous.
The first shoe to fall seems to be in Wisconsin, a race we highlighted days ago, where incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is starting to look like he could win easy re-election. It’s not just Wisconsin, however, as other states seem to be slipping ever so slightly toward the “red” column.
As Axios reports, Dems are getting nervous watching as they potentially snatch defeat from the jaws of victory:
Democrats are facing fresh problems in two pivotal Senate battlegrounds in which their nominees are facing attacks for being too progressive.
What’s happening: In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has pulled ahead of Democrat Mandela Barnes in the latest wave of public polls. In Pennsylvania, recent polling suggests Democrat John Fetterman’s double-digit advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz has shrunk to a statistical tie. They are vying for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.
Why it matters: The Republican momentum in both states, acknowledged by strategists on both sides, means the pathway for Republicans to win back the Senate majority looks clearer.
If they hold Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — along with all the states Trump carried — Republicans would need to unseat just one Democratic incumbent.
Dr. Oz was almost entirely written off during the summertime. He was a “quack” TV doctor unable to connect with voters because he mispronounced the name of a grocery store and buys cheese platters. The mockery strategy may have worked, on behalf of Fetterman, Oz’s Democratic opponent, during the summer when only the most ardent voters were paying attention to the race.
Since that time, however, Fetterman’s been put on defense on things such as his own personal health disclosures and his “empty the prisons” mentality he seems to only recently have decided to disavow.
Things could change, of course, the race remains at best a “toss up” for Republicans if not a tilt toward Fetterman. Pennsylvania is a murky blue state, after all.
While our own numbers don’t show it yet, the RealClearPolitics average of generic ballot Congressional polls now puts Republicans back in the lead after months of hemorrhaging support. If that shift continues or holds where it is, even the written-off Dr. Oz in the Keystone State has a chance in November.
Democrats have so overreached on things like lax bail laws and basically rewarding criminals rather than protecting law-abiding that they’re scaring off moderates and independents. Furthermore, the “Trump” strategy can only run so deep for most voters. They’re voting for a Senate or Governor’s race that has nothing to do with the former president. Democrats should be wise enough to realize this but thankfully they’re not.
The bottom line is that the battle for the U.S. Senate remains tight and seems like it’s closer than some pollsters and analysts tend to think. In this national environment, with Biden’s approval waning, gas prices inching up, and food prices out of control, it’s a wonder Democrats have a foothold at all.
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