James Carville: “Just Yelling Abortion” Won’t Work for Democrats

Well, someone should tell them that because they’re not getting the memo.

Nationwide, on every front in nearly every race, most Democratic candidates for House, Senate, and various Governor races have made abortion rights and/or access a centerpiece of their midterm pitch. It’s an important issue–for some–but not all voters. To sound as if abortion and nothing else will drive voters to the polls seems to be the hymnal many Democrats are singing from. They don’t have much else to run on and would rather not learn anything new this late in the game.

It’s got to the point that veteran strategist and famed advisor to former President Bill Clinton, James Carville, outright stated that running on abortion will get Democrats clobbered in November in light of the major issues that voters actually care most about:

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville fears his party’s hyper-focus on abortion isn’t working.

“A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don’t think so,” said Carville, a vocal Cortez Masto ally who has sent dozens of fundraising emails on her behalf. “It’s a good issue. But if you just sit there and they’re pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you’ve got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.”

The problem for many democratic candidates is that laying off the abortion pedal will anger some core constituents and undercut national Democratic Party interests. Furthermore, if they’re not talking about abortion, they’ll be forced to talk about something else, like the economy. For Democrats in 2022, the economy has become a “third rail” political issue. Don’t mention it, don’t think about it, and certainly don’t admit Biden’s policies have caused a recession.

Instead, some Democrats, like Nevada’s incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, are taking the other option. Try to keep the race focused on your own state and avoid a situation where the election becomes nationalized. One way to do that is to avoid campaigning with President Biden since that would remind voters why they don’t like your policies:

In the interview, Cortez Masto did not say whether she wanted the Democratic president to visit the state on her behalf.

“The president is always welcome in the state of Nevada. But really, my goal here is to make sure I’m addressing the needs of Nevadans,” she said, adding that she wasn’t surprised Trump was in the state campaigning for Laxalt.

What seems to be materializing is the same type of playing field that opened up in Virginia in 2021. Democrats are overplaying their hand on abortion and Donald Trump. They wrongly assume that both “issues” will bring independents and moderate Republicans flocking in their direction. Voters, however, have disconnected their elections from being a referendum on Trump or a single issue and instead are voting on common-sense kitchen table topics like the economy, grocery prices, and inflation.

There’s also a reason why Democrats like Cortez Masto would prefer to keep talking about abortion and little else:

Nevada’s electorate is overwhelmingly working-class compared to voters in other battleground states, leaving the state’s 3 million residents more vulnerable to economic setbacks. Just 25.5% of the state graduated from college, compared to 35% nationally, according to the Census Bureau.

Nevada has among the highest gasoline prices in the country at an average of $5.44, almost 40% higher than the U.S. average, according to AAA. Higher gas prices have also translated into fewer drivers crossing into Nevada from California to go to Las Vegas. Nor has gaming revenue kept pace with annual inflation. Gaming revenue in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, rose just 2.9% in August from a year ago.

Her constituents are living out Biden’s policies before their very eyes. High gas prices, high cost of living, and an anemic tourism economy in a state that relies heavily on out-of-state dollars to pay the bills.

For another angle to this, from a state beyond Nevada, the same concerns are playing out among Democrats in Pennsylvania where some activists fear they’re seeing an “abortion mirage”:

But not everyone is convinced that an abortion-focused strategy will pay off.

“I am worried if we Democrats are focused on just the choice issue, then that’s not enough,” Rebecca McNichol, Pennsylvania executive director of progressive candidate training firm Emerge, said in an interview. She said that Pennsylvania Democratic candidates must also campaign on “the bread-and-butter issues that are noticeable for families,” noting that gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro is setting an example.

Several recent polls underscore McNichol’s concern. While a majority of Pennsylvania’s likely voters say that abortion should be legal to some extent in a recent Muhlenberg College poll, for instance, 34% see the economy and inflation as a top issue, compared to 20% for abortion.

James Carville is often wrong but on this issue he’s correct. Democrats cannot run and win on abortion alone, they have to get out of that box. The likelihood that happens before Election Day is roughly slim to none, a good prospect for the GOP.