In other news, Georgia breathes a sigh of relief that it won’t be the state deciding Senate control in the December runoff.
In the most likely scenario for the GOP to still have a path toward controlling the Senate, winning Nevada was an absolute must since it would offset John Fetterman’s victory in Pennsylvania that flipped the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
The Nevada race was looking good for Republican Adam Laxalt since Election Day as he maintained a slight but sustainable lead. Still, as time went on and mail-in ballots were counted from around the state, his lead eroded, and Democratic incumbent Sen. Cathleen Cortez Masto came out the eventual victor in the race. Once again, we could point to a litany of lousy polling data that suggested Laxalt was the favorite heading into Tuesday, but that clearly wasn’t the case:
Democrats defied historical trends and defeated several candidates backed by former President Donald Trump to keep control of the Senate, providing enormous relief for President Joe Biden.
The battle for the House, meanwhile, remains too close to call.
The picture in the Senate became clear late Saturday after Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada narrowly defeated Republican Adam Laxalt to win re-election, putting her party over the threshold, NBC News projected Saturday.
“Thank you, Nevada!” Cortez Masto said in a tweet Saturday evening after its two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, finished counting mail-in ballots.
Democrats kept the Senate in spite of Biden’s faulty approval ratings. More than anything, a break from independents that didn’t go heavily toward the GOP coupled with Democratic enthusiasm over abortion and an unexpected turnout among younger voters tipped the scales back to Dems.
As for Republicans now being locked out of a chance to control the Senate, the finger-pointing and soul-searching have begun with Sen. Rick Scott, Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), leading the way:
The senator, who also heads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said that Republicans were trending toward success in the polls leading up to the election but that ultimately GOP voters did not show up.
“I think we’ve got to reflect now. What didn’t happen?” said Scott. “I think we didn’t have enough of a positive message. We said everything about how bad the Biden agenda was. It’s bad, the Democrats are radical, but we have to have a plan of what we stand for.”
The knee-jerk reaction has been to blame Donald Trump for his primary endorsements and campaigning. The truth is far deeper than that. Republicans won Virginia in 2021 in a tough environment, turned around a +10 Biden state, and sent Glenn Youngkin to Richmond. How did the GOP blow it in the midterms with Biden’s approval lower than it was last year, record inflation numbers, and endless economic turmoil in the grocery store and at the gas pump?
The next blame-list item is abortion, but many staunchly pro-life candidates won around the country as well. In Georgia, where voters split their decision, Brian Kemp, an unabashedly pro-life governor, won easy re-election over the very pro-abortion Stacey Abrams. The same is true in Nevada as well where voters picked the pro-life Joe Lombardo for Governor over incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.
What wound up burying Republicans in many races was a reliance that the typical midterm model, where many younger, left-leaning voters sit out, would take shape as expected. Instead, youth voters saw the second-highest turnout in the past 30 years.
In Senate races that should’ve been winnable, Trump bares blame for promoting flawed candidates that were subsequently abandoned by Sen. Mitch McConnell and the NRSC. As bad as John Fetterman was in Pennsylvania, and he should’ve been beaten handily, voters were not sold on Dr. Mehmet Oz. For starters, he is not a native Pennsylvanian, a strike that probably kept his vote ceiling in the mid-forties.
This type of post-mortem could go on and on for each individual state since each race demonstrates some different shades of problems for the GOP moving forward. In the end, Biden’s poor presidency alone wasn’t enough to let the Republican Party win by default.
Scott Presler, an ardent Trump backer, and widely known GOP activist (a.k.a The Persistence), saw the writing on the wall back in September and sent up warning flags at the time but few were listening:
I was criticized for this tweet.
— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) November 9, 2022
Individuals like Presler spend all their time on the ground, knocking on doors, registering voters, and observing each race on the most granular level. What he saw back in September gave him pause and seems like he spotted a bit of complacency among Republicans.
What about control of the House? While the GOP is favored to win the lower chamber, several races haven’t been called yet leaving things in a state of limbo for a few more days:
As of Saturday night, 21 congressional races remain unresolved. Of those, 10 are truly undecided, with neither party a significant favorite to win once all the votes are tallied.
Democrats have been narrowing the gap in many of those races over the past 24 hours. The Associated Press called seven new congressional races on Friday and three on Saturday — all for Democrats. That included a seat in southwest Washington State that POLITICO’s Election Forecast had rated “Lean Republican” and where Republicans failed to mount a strong defense after their incumbent lost in a primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
The balance of power in the House currently stands at 211 Republicans and 203 Democrats — but, functionally, it’s more closely divided. The list of uncalled races includes one California contest where both general-election candidates are Democrats. And allocating the roughly dozen races where one party is significantly favored — but where The AP hasn’t made a call — adds six more seats to the Democratic Party’s tally, and four races to Republicans’.
That would put Republicans at 215 seats, just three seats away from the majority, while Democrats would be six seats short. But with 10 seats in doubt — six with Republicans leading, and four where Democrats are ahead — both parties still have a shot, though the GOP is still favored.
The concept of “election week” is a laughing joke. We’re now headed into the week following “Election Day” and still can’t declare control of the Hosue and call a few other Governor and Senate races due to mail-in balloting.
If the GOP doesn’t end up controlling the House as a consolation prize for missing their opportunity in the Senate, heads should start rolling up and down the Republican leadership chain and the announcement from Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday will be met with groans rather than excitement.
You can keep following the live results on our 2022 Midterm Election Results page.
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