Will Senate control come down to another December runoff election in Georgia like it did in 2020? Signs point to “maybe” depending on the outcome in Nevada and Arizona.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger confirmed the news earlier today as the numbers were finalized late this morning. Neither Walker nor Warnock was able to reach 50% support sending the state into another month of campaigning:
Neither candidate will garner the 50% of the vote needed to clinch the seat outright under state rules. The two Senate hopefuls will head to a Dec. 6 runoff.
“Right now we have less than 20,000 total votes still out to be counted. That’s not enough to change the race. So this is headed for a runoff,” Raffensperger said Wednesday morning on “The Brian Kilmeade Show.”
The Georgia race, one of the most competitive in the country, could help to determine control of the Senate, along with remaining races in Arizona and Nevada. Republicans need to win two of those contests, against Democratic incumbents, to win a majority in the Senate.
The presence of Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, a 37-year-old Atlanta businessman, helped to deny Warnock and Walker the majority they needed to win outright.
So, where do things stand in the meantime?
As things stand right now, Republicans will have 49 seats, a number that includes Alaska. That leaves three contested races remaining. Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia. Let’s examine the three individually.
Nevada
Nevada is currently looking good as a Republican pickup. So far, Adam Laxalt is leading by a margin that should carry him to victory at some point in the next day or two. The remaining vote totals probably won’t be enough for incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto to overcome:
As predicted the rurals and Washoe have given Laxalt the lead. He’s up 23K votes. Even Joe Gloria shouldn’t be sitting on that many ballots.
Lombardo has won. He’s up 40K.
On a disappointing night nationally for Rs, Nevada is a bright spot. pic.twitter.com/Mx7mjyQWE8
— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) November 9, 2022
If Laxalt wins, it offsets Fetterman’s win in Pennsylvania meaning the two flipped seats basically cancel each other out.
Let’s give Nevada to Republicans, a +1 pickup.
Arizona
The state of Arizona is a hot mess when it comes to ballot counting and Election Day problems. Thanks to a heavy reliance on mail-in ballots, the full results won’t be known until possibly this weekend at the latest. As it stands now, Republican Blake Masters is down to incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and running behind Kari Lake on the governor’s line. It could turn around for Masters, but he may be down too far for any of the remaining rural or reddish votes to make a difference:
If the trend continues, as there are thousands of deep-red Election Day ballots yet to be counted, Kari Lake may be the next Republican Governor of Arizona when the dust settles, but Masters may miss the mark in the Senate race. It’s early, and he could see some stronger support in the coming hours and days, but it’ll be tough.
For the purpose of discussion, let’s give Arizona to Democrats, they will hold the seat.
Georgia
If the Nevada Senate race goes red and the Arizona Senate race goes blue, that leaves the chamber at 50 Republicans and 49 Democrats, and one seat left to decide in Georgia.
If Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock beats Walker in the runoff, the Senate remains as-is with a 50-50 split leaving Vice President Kamala Harris in the tiebreaker seat.
On the other hand, if Herschel Walker wins in December, Republicans would take control of the upper chamber with a 51-49 split giving Kamala Harris a lot of free time.
Alternate Scenario
If somehow Masters can pull it out in Arizona, and assuming Laxalt wins in Nevada, that would give Republicans a Senate majority and Georgia would become irrelevant in terms of deciding control.
Watch the remaining results today to see which scenario we’ll be facing in the coming weeks. Republicans still have an open door to Senate control but they may not be able to walk through it until December. On the other hand, the last time Georgia went to a runoff in 2020, Warnock came out victorious.
After all this, we could end up exactly where we started on the morning of Election Day in the U.S. Senate but the House of Representatives will have a new speaker and a slight Republican majority.
Follow the 2022 Midterm results page for live updates.
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