Red Wave Alert: Polls Show Dramatic Shift Toward GOP in Final Days

What a distant dream from the days of August when various media and polls saw some kind of Democratic insurgence ready to blunt the potential of a red wave in November.

Well, November is now upon us with just days to go. The change, even from weeks ago in October, has been dramatic and swift. Call it a case of pollsters switching models or “undecideds” finally sliding into the “decided” column, the numbers are looking bleak for Democrats all over the map.

The catch here is that it’s not just one poll or even a couple of polls, it’s a shift picked up by several pollsters as the economy and inflation become the overarching issues. Perhaps one of the most eye-popping numbers is the shift among suburban women who, back in August, were up double-digits with Democrats. Now, the script has been flipped, according to the Wall Street Journal:

White suburban women, a key group of midterm voters, have significantly shifted their support from Democrats to Republicans in the closing days of midterm campaigning because of rising concerns over the economy and inflation, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll.

The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll. It also suggests that the topic of abortion rights has faded in importance after Democrats saw energy on that issue this summer in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Democrats were counting on suburban women to focus on abortion as their most important topic while they ignore the economy and record inflation. That strategy has been flawed since the beginning as there are few people day to day to spend as much time obsessing over abortion as elected Democrats.

It’s not just suburban women, of course, it’s the electorate in general as evidenced by the most recent CNN polling asking which party voters favor controlling Congress:

An enthusiastic Republican base and persistent concerns about the state of the economy place the GOP in a strong position with about a week to go in the race for control of the US House of Representatives, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS.

The new survey out Wednesday shows that Democratic enthusiasm about voting is significantly lower than it was in 2018, when the Democratic Party took control of the House. Republican voters in the new poll express greater engagement with this year’s midterm election than Democrats across multiple questions gauging likelihood of vote.

Overall, 27% of registered voters say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year, down from 37% just ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, and the decline in enthusiasm comes almost entirely among Democrats. Four years ago, 44% of Democratic registered voters said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting; now, just 24% say the same. Among Republicans, the number has dipped only narrowly, from 43% to 38%.

In the new poll, Republicans top Democrats on a generic ballot question asking voters which party’s candidate they would support in their own House district by 51% to 47% among likely voters, narrowly outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Again, a stark change from a month ago when Democrats were still leading this same poll on which candidate they would support in November. The enthusiasm among Republicans is far higher than their Democratic counterparts as well.

Next, the NPR/Marist poll that finds the GOP has reversed course from October and now sits ahead on the generic ballot question:

Republicans gained 4 points in a month while Democrats lost two points as voters begin to focus on the issues that are most important to them. While Democrats still harp only on abortion and Donald Trump, Republicans are offering an alternative vision for the country.

The stats from the NPR/Marist poll are also quite revealing as to how voters are thinking heading into Election Day:

The Republicans running for Congress (49%) now edge their Democratic rivals (46%) among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this month’s midterm elections. In October, the Democrats (48%) edged the Republicans (45%) by three points. Among registered voters, the Democratic (46%) and Republican (46%) congressional candidates are tied. The Democrats (46%) were +2 points over the Republicans (44%) last month.

For the first time in a decade, a majority of Americans (59%) think it is better for the country if the president and Congress are from the same party. 38% think it is advantageous for these two branches to be from different parties. In December 2016, Americans had the opposite view (29% same party to 63% different parties).

82% of registered voters nationally say they definitely plan to vote this year, and 70% say they are very interested in this year’s midterm elections. While interest among Democrats is steady (68% now compared with 67% last month), interest has grown among Republicans. 84% of the GOP report a great deal of interest, up from 72%.

Whether it’s the actual issues or merely voter enthusiasm, Democrats are getting buried. President Biden is doing his best if you can call it that, to empathize with voter concerns on the economy by explaining what his record inflation means for your wallet:

JOE BIDEN: “That’s what I call inflation. The end of the month what you have left. If you have no money, that’s inflation. What do you – the things you need, are they going up? They are. They are.” pic.twitter.com/6dwJ5Wq4u3

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 1, 2022

That’s what Joe Biden calls inflation but that’s not what inflation actually is. He probably knows that but thinks his interpretation sounds better. It’s amazing to see the turnaround today compared to months ago when Democrats wouldn’t say the word “inflation” or even acknowledge the problem.

There are races around the country, such as the New Hampshire Senate race, for example, that have been flying under the radar where Democrats are suddenly playing defense. Everywhere from Oregon to New York, Republicans have the advantage on issues and enthusiasm. It’s going to be a wild election night if these trends hold or keep growing in the coming days.