Trafalgar Poll: NY Gov Race Now a Dead Heat Between Zeldin, Hochul

How can you tell Democrats are really, really worried about their prospects in New York? The Democratic Governor’s Association has suddenly decided to start dumping money into the state hoping to carry incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul across the finish line next week.

That story was already breaking yesterday when the Trafalgar Group released their latest poll on Monday night of the Zeldin-Hochul race and found the two locked in a dead heat. The most recent Trafalgar poll of the race gave Hochul a 2-point advantage.

The race continues to tighten following Hochul’s weak debate performance last week and the ongoing frustration of New Yorkers that their elected officials couldn’t care less about the concerns of law-abiding citizens in favor of protecting criminals while standing unapologetically on the side of authoritarian Covid-19 mandates.

First, here’s the latest from Trafalgar to set the stage for why Democrats are so nervous about their chances in the Empire State:

New @trafalgar_group #NYGov #Poll (10/27-10/31) is turning out to be one to watch with #Zeldin holding a razor thin lead in a statistical tie. #nypol

48.4% @leezeldin
47.6% @KathyHochul
4.0% Und

See Report: https://t.co/sh7bW4h83Z pic.twitter.com/1qNbtvuqNd

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 1, 2022

That’s an absolutely terrible position for a Democratic incumbent in a deep-blue state that should be a cakewalk in any other year. Republicans haven’t won a statewide election in New York since 2002 with George Pataki.

As a result of the tightening race and the political earthquake it would create if Zeldin actually won, Democrats are now pouring dump trucks of money into the state hoping to save Hochul from her own bad campaign:

The Democratic Governors Association has created an independent expenditure committee in New York to boost Gov. Kathy Hochul in the final week of her election bid.

It’s a rare entrance for the national group into New York politics, where recent gubernatorial elections have been all but decided by primary night. It comes as Republican nominee Rep. Lee Zeldin has benefited from an unprecedented surge of outside spending while polls have gradually tightened throughout October.

“Republican super PACs have spent a record amount of nearly $12 million to insert an election denying, abortion banning, MAGA Republican who would make New York less safe by rolling back laws to take illegal guns off the street,” DGA Communications Director David Turner said. “The DGA is taking nothing for granted and won’t sit idly by.”

Even in their press release, they can’t resist painting Zeldin as some raving right-wing lunatic tied to “MAGA” and Donald Trump. Zeldin has been unapologetic about his support for Trump and he’s run a smart campaign focused on the issues. The “abortion” and “Trump” playbook is basically the extent of what Democrats have for voters in 2022. As of this week, Zeldin had both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in the state on the campaign trail stumping for him.

If Democrats are forced to play defense in New York, a state they’d expect to take for granted, it means they will have less money to go around in other competitive governor races such as Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, to name a few. If Republicans genuinely stand a chance of beating Democrats in New York, election night could be full of upsets in races previously thought of as “safe” Dem seats.

On this map, in this cycle, very few places seem entirely “safe” for Democrats with Biden’s failure at the helm.