New Dem Primary Schedule Would Help Joe Biden in 2024

There’s nothing like stacking the deck in your favor to avert a potential upcoming primary challenge.

While the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is engaged in shaking up its presidential primary calendar, President Biden is busy working to make sure he will be the main benefactor if he chooses to run again in 2024. If you recall, Biden lost the first two contests in 2020 with Pete Buttigieg winning Iowa and Bernie Sanders winning in New Hampshire. Biden, in fact, came in fifth place in the Granite State, a result that caused some analysts to predict he wouldn’t even make it to South Carolina.

Then came the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses where Bernie Sanders again came away the victor with Biden taking a distant second place. It was not until the South Carolina primary that Biden stomped Sanders and took the first place spot in an easy win, a result that basically propelled his open path to the nomination. The reason for Biden’s southern win was thanks mostly to black voters who make up half the electorate in the Democratic primary.

Needless to say, Biden would like to skip all the nonsense of the first three contests and move South Carolina directly to the head of the line for Democrats in 2024:

At a meeting in Washington, a key panel at the Democratic National Committee approved the proposal, which was put forward by President Joe Biden a day earlier. The only dissent came from representatives of Iowa and New Hampshire.

The overhaul calls for South Carolina to hold its Democratic primary on Feb. 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on Feb. 6. Georgia would hold its primary on Feb. 13, with Michigan rounding out the early voting on Feb. 27.

The new calendar still faces hurdles before it is adopted. Numerous states were caught off guard by the White House proposal, which makes more dramatic revisions than had been expected.

We reported previously that Biden was pushing behind the scenes to move up South Carolina and now those reports have been confirmed. The new calendar would look something like this assuming the states all play along:

Proposed 2024 Democratic Primary Schedule

1. South Carolina (Feb. 3)
2. Nevada, New Hampshire (Feb. 6)
3. Georgia (Feb. 13)
4. Michigan (Feb. 27)

Notice the lack of Iowa? That’s for a reason. The state’s too white and rural according to Democrats.

The only wrinkle in the plan appears to be whether Republican officials in Georgia, where the state controls the primary calendar, will play along and agree to move the primary in line with the DNC proposal.

Furthermore, Nevada and New Hampshire would basically be sharing a day, something early states usually aren’t keen on doing since they lose their unique and individual spotlight. Forcing campaigns to divide their time between New Hampshire and Nevada will basically leave the Granite State out in the cold, so to speak. There would be a divide in the field of candidates heading to whichever state they stand the best chance in.

The other glaringly obvious fact, however, is that the calendar would heavily benefit Joe Biden and Kamala Harris:

The Biden calendar, approved by a key panel of the Democratic National Committee Friday, would put South Carolina first among a set of five states sanctioned to hold early primaries. It would be followed by New Hampshire and Nevada on the same day, then Georgia and finally Michigan. Iowa would be kicked out of both the top spot and the first five.

The new calendar would be “good for the Biden-Harris ticket,” said Karen Finney, a veteran Democratic strategist who urged Biden to choose a Black woman as his running mate in 2020.

This is basically Biden repaying his friends in South Carolina for rescuing his 2020 campaign off life support. Nothing is official yet until the full DNC votes on the change in full but some states have vowed to hold early contests anyway, bucking the national party:

The full DNC must still vote on Biden’s proposal early next year, and officials in Iowa and New Hampshire say they will hold their contests before other states no matter what penalties the DNC applies to line-jumpers or candidates who campaign in rogue states.

This fight isn’t over yet for Iowa and won’t be settled until next year. By the time 2024 rolls around, however, Iowa may be forced to choose between holding an early contest, accepting a penalty of reduced delegate numbers, or getting in line with the new primary voting order.