There’s been a lot of chatter in the last few weeks around the peripheral players of the 2024 Republican primary battle.
Whether it was Larry Hogan, who announced he’s not running, or Chris Christie, who is still biding his time, a handful of candidates are currently in the decision-making process regarding whether they want to join the Trump-DeSantis buzzsaw.
The one name floating around the background who appears to be setting himself up for a campaign is former Vice President Mike Pence, Trump’s right-hand-man for four years in the White House. As of late, and perhaps more frequently, Pence has been criticizing his former boss by name and making various character judgments against him.
So, what’s Pence’s game plan in 2024? What lane does he intend to occupy amid a primary field filled with big personalities already?
Apparently, according to his inner circle, Pence wants to be the “John McCain” of 2024:
“Pence world has long believed that the former congressman and Indiana governor could occupy the adult-in-a-room 2024 lane, in that he is uniquely positioned to speak truth to power now that he is free of the constraints of the vice presidency,” Politico’s Adam Wren wrote after Pence’s recent speech to the Gridiron Club of D.C.-area media figures, which was conspicuous for the (relative) ferocity with which he went after Trump.
“Pence’s inner circle sees the 2008 campaign of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) as a template,” Wren reported. “Then, much as Pence is now, McCain found himself written off by other competitors — deemed a relic of an outdated type of politics as he rode around on the Straight Talk Express.”
In other words, everyone, voters and observers alike, are writing Pence off in 2024 as they did John McCain in 2008. Then, somehow from the ash heap of the 2008 GOP field, McCain rose to contention and won the nomination as a pseudo-compromise candidate.
Pence is, for all intents and purposes, not John McCain. While the parallels of the “maverick” speaking truth to his own party may be visible, the differences are what will leave Pence at the starting gate.
For one, Pence is considered a traitor by many Trump voters. His decision to not forcefully reject allegedly tainted votes during the certification process in the Senate has left him out to dry when it comes to any further allegiance by a good portion of the GOP voting base. After that, Pence turned on Trump personally and began criticizing his former boss on all things related to Jan. 6 and other parts of Trump’s presidency.
That’s not to say Trump is infallible, no human being is, and every public leader is deserving of criticism from time to time. In Pence’s case, after serving under Trump for four years and never publicly questioning or speaking ill of his boss, why has he decided to turn now? It’s an about-face that looks like a political calculation, not a principled change of mind.
It’s in this context that Pence must attempt to connect with skeptical voters if he chooses to run, no small task:
As Politico’s Ryan Lizza asked after the Gridiron speech, D.C. media circles may have appreciated the former VP’s remarks, but “will Pence talk like this in front of Iowa Republicans?” A non-televised event is one thing, but “will he show the courage to blast Trump in front of Republican primary voters?”
To Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg, no amount of Pence positioning is enough to surmount his fundamentally untenable position of having “spent four years as Trump’s obsequious companion, complimenting the president on everything he did and said.” Pivoting to a Trump critic, however, “doesn’t get him much credit among the anti-Trump crowd or the pro-Trump wing of the GOP — a wing that accounts for at least a third of the party.”
In other words, Pence is lacking a base of support within the GOP right now. The pro-Trump crowd doesn’t like him for turning on their preferred candidate and the anti-Trump crowd doesn’t like him for dutifully serving as Vice President and providing credibility to his former boss.
By that measure, Pence will have a near-impossible time of winning the voters he needs if he were to have a shot at the 2024 GOP nomination. As far as polling goes, Pence is tied with Nikki Haley at around 6% support, not a terrible position to be in.
On the other hand, if there is a middle ground between the pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions, it’s probably not going to be Mike Pence.
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