What if Trump Skips the First Debate?

The big political news this week is the first GOP debate. Donald Trump has said he plans to skip it—as he skipped the last debate in 2016. That year, all the other candidates decided not to go, either, confirming their defeat.

This year, the rest plan to be there, and an article in Politico says Trump may regret staying “in the basement”:

Donald Trump wants to deprive his competitors of any oxygen. That’s why the former president is likely skipping next week’s debate in Milwaukee.

But it probably won’t work.

As presidential primaries have become more national in scope, debates have arguably been all that’s really mattered in the run-up to the early states. Candidates like Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ben Carson and Pete Buttigieg surged in the polls after strong showings.

The proof is in the numbers: Much of the movement in recent primary fights has been marked in time by the nationally televised debates. Candidates sink or swim based on their debate performances — and the first debate has often been the catalyst for the first real changes in those races.

It’s about performance, and Trump is, above all else, a “performer.” But he did not do well in the first debate against Joe Biden. Republicans had painted Biden as a doddering old fool, and he showed up spry and aggressive, while Trump, who had not debated in four years, seemed ill-prepared.

In our earlier article, we suggested that Biden should debate so that he’ll be prepared for the “main events” next year. The same could be said about Trump. He’s lucky that the other candidates folded before the last debate, because televised debates are the supreme method for reaching a huge audience.

Even if Trump doesn’t show, the debates will still command larger audiences than anything else the candidates will do over the next six months. So it’s an unparalleled opportunity for those seeking their breakthrough moment, like Tim Scott, Nikki Haley or Vivek Ramaswamy. And the peril for a once-hyped hopeful like Ron DeSantis if he doesn’t deliver is real.

The article points out that poor performances at a debate can spell disaster. In 2008, Rudy Giuliani looked strong, but went into “free fall” due to poor debate performances. In 2012, Herman Cain jumped from fourth place to second, due to a strong performance. And of course, we all remember Rick Perry, who went in strong and was devastated when he couldn’t remember the third federal agency he would kill if he were elected.

On the upside, in 2012, Mitt Romney skipped the first debate, but ended up gaining popularity before the second debate. Trump may be looking at that.

NBC had a full panel discussing the debate.

Brendan Buck says that no one is actually “campaigning” besides Trump. Former Rep. Donna Edwards agrees, saying if the other candidates are not willing to attack Trump, then they do not deserve to run. The host asked why are they running, if they’re not serious. Buck says the other candidates were banking on Trump not running, or destroying himself. Since that has not happened, they are afraid to anger Trump’s base, because they want to use this campaign to get visibility for a 2028 run. Sahl Kapur added that being nice to Trump might also put them in place for the vice presidential slot.

Unsurprisingly, Fox News has hounded Trump to come to the debate. It means ratings for them. They have sent people to Mar-a-Lago, and have called regularly. They say that a debate is “enormously important,” quoting Chris Christie.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, in a Fox News Digital interview in Manchester, N.H., Aug. 9, 2023, emphasized that the first GOP presidential debate will provide ‘the biggest audience any of us have spoken before in a long time.’

In a Republican presidential primary race dominated by former President Donald Trump, you can’t underestimate the importance of Wednesday’s kickoff GOP nomination debate, a Fox News-hosted primetime showdown in Milwaukee.

“It means a lot for me and every other candidate. It’s going to be the biggest audience any of us have spoken before in a long time,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, making his second run for the White House, told Fox News Digital earlier this month. “It’s important for people to get to know you, to know who you are, what you want to do for the party and for the country.”

Meanwhile, George Conway, no fan of Trump, says Trump “has no reason” to attend the GOP debate.

“These are words … difficult for me to say, but I agree with Donald Trump. I think he’s doing the right thing by Donald Trump,” Conway told CNN anchor Anderson Cooper on Friday. “I don’t see the upside for him to appear at this debate. All it does is give his opponents a chance to take free shots at him.”. . .

Conway, however, conceded that it would be better for voters to see him on stage.

“I think it’s better for the voters to see him and to hear him respond to the attacks, but just looking at it from his interests, he’s doing the right thing,” he said.

Recently surging, Vivek Ramaswamy has changed his tune on whether Trump should debate, according to Fox.

Ramaswamy said Saturday he’s “fine” with Trump not showing up at the first few debates despite declaring in May it would prove Trump’s not the candidate he once was.

[This is a change from what Ramaswamy said.]

“I fully expect to see Donald Trump on that debate stage,” he said at the time. “It is my expectation Trump will be there because as I’ve known him he’s not a man that I know of to be afraid. He’s not somebody who’s made a habit of himself to be a coward.

[And, he says:]

“But if he doesn’t show up on that debate stage, that will be the best proof that the Donald Trump of today is not the same Donald Trump as in 2016.”

One thing this may show is whether Trump could have been stopped in 2016. When Trump announced that he would not attend the final debate, it was the opportunity for the other candidates to showcase themselves, and even to give cogent reasons why Trump shouldn’t run. Instead, they “folded like a cheap suit,” and made Trump look like the only one who could lead.

This time, if anyone makes a memorable impression without him, it could be a whole new ballgame. While he’s now low in the polls, Chris Christie is the one to watch. He could be the breakout candidate, because Republicans want a strong leader, and it’s likely that Christie will bulldoze the rest.

Watch how he destroyed Marco Rubio in 2016.

Christie didn’t win in 2016, but neither did Rubio recover.