DeSantis in Free Fall in New Hampshire: CNN Poll

While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis goes all-in on Iowa, he better keep an eye on the Granite State where his numbers have tumbled to a disastrous fifth place.

According to a new poll from CNN and the University of New Hampshire, former President Donald Trump still leads the race, but the battle for the second place position is now a four-way fight:

Former President Donald Trump holds a sizable lead in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination in New Hampshire, but a close contest for second place has emerged among four candidates seeking to gain traction as an alternative to the front-runner, according to a new CNN/University of New Hampshire poll.

Overall, Trump is the first choice of 39% of likely GOP primary voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state. That lags a bit behind his performance nationally, where Republican primary polling routinely finds Trump with majority support.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who stood out as Trump’s chief rival in the last UNH survey on the New Hampshire race in July, has dropped 13 points since then to 10% support. He’s now running about even against three rising candidates: tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (13%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (12%) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (11%). South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is at 6% support in the poll and former Vice President Mike Pence holds 2%. No other candidate tops 1%.

DeSantis’ decline stems from a sharp drop-off among moderates, from 26% backing him in July to 6% now. He fell a smaller 8 points among conservatives.

There is no positive way to spin these numbers, they’re atrocious for DeSantis.

To put these numbers in perspective, here’s the change since July, courtesy of InteractivePolls on X:

Trump 39% (+2)
Ramaswamy 13% (+8)
Haley 12% (+7)
Christie 11% (+5)
DeSantis 10% (-13)
Scott 6% (-2)
Pence 2% (+1)
Burgum 1% (-5)
Hurd 1% (=)

DeSantis is the only top-tier candidate to see a double-digit drop in support. What’s happening in the DeSantis world to push these numbers so far down?

Some of this may be traceable to the Aug. 23 debate where other candidates had a chance to stand out including Ramaswamy, Haley, and Christie, all of whom came away with noteworthy soundbites. DeSantis’ debate performance was average at best, leaving him in a situation where establishment donors are getting uneasy about funding a stagnant campaign.

According to Politico, quoting sources on the ground in New Hampshire, the DeSantis campaign is coding on the table in the Granite State and someone needs to get the cardiac team in immediately:

“The campaign for Ron DeSantis is on life support,” veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Mike Dennehy said in response to the poll. “He has one shot at resuscitation and that is the debate next week.”

The Florida governor’s sagging poll numbers in New Hampshire come as he hasn’t set foot in the first primary state in a month. As he campaigns in Iowa and fundraises in Texas, he’s been leaving his surrogates and supporters in New Hampshire to pick up his slack.

“He needs to get his a– up to New Hampshire,” said one DeSantis endorser in New Hampshire, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the situation. “This is absolutely ridiculous that he’s not here.”

It’s true that DeSantis has poured almost all his effort into Iowa to the neglect of New Hampshire and to a lesser extent, South Carolina. The internal thinking among DeSantis strategists is that Iowa is the place to make a stand against Trump and then move on to the later contests.

In reality, if DeSantis is seen as a loser down the line in New Hampshire, Iowans will take notice and adjust their vote accordingly. That’s not to say Iowa and New Hampshire vote in lockstep since they usually don’t. There is, however, certainly a two-way influential relationship.

As we noted yesterday, Team Trump seems to think that if DeSantis can be defeated in Iowa, it’ll vanquish the Governor’s hope of succeeding anywhere else.

For the moment, DeSantis campaign headquarters is in a “break glass in case of emergency” mode.