No Friends: DeSantis Locked out From MAGA and Moderates

As we noted last week, the presidential campaign of Mike Pence looked to be running out of money and running out of time. Days later, over the weekend, Pence announced it would be the end and he was bowing out.

With Pence gone, there’s a new sliver of support for Haley and DeSantis to fight over heading into the next debate.

DeSantis has, however, run into problems of his own as of late trying to thread the needle between Trump-locked MAGA faithful and Trump-averse moderates. Courting one without annoying the other may have proven to be a bridge too far for the Florida Governor, as the Washington Post reports:

DeSantis began the year widely viewed as the Republican with the best chance to build a winning coalition against the former president — the Trump alternative who could entice Trump critics yet was also in many ways a continuation of Trump’s “America First” platform. But DeSantis’s support has shrunk dramatically since then, eroding on both ends of the party spectrum, interviews with dozens of early state voters, as well as pollsters and strategists, show.

The GOP minority that disapproves of Trump — and that favored DeSantis before he and most other candidates announced — has splintered to other hopefuls. Boosted by them and by independents, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has surpassed DeSantis in New Hampshire and, in one poll released Monday, pulled even with the Florida governor in Iowa — where DeSantis has poured his resources.

At the same time, DeSantis has struggled among Trump supporters, losing ground with those who approve of the former president, who has used his four criminal indictments to re-energize a base that once looked readier to move on from him. And DeSantis has struggled on both ends to make personal appeals that resonate, with a stiffer presentation than freewheeling Trump.

Now, DeSantis is left in a perilous position with just over two months until the first nominating contest, mired in a second tier of candidates well behind Trump.

Somehow, amid this mess, Nikki Haley, the “everything to everyone” candidate has emerged as the more authentic option than Ron DeSantis. How did that happen?

For starters, Haley is the true “moderate” between the two and can more cleanly morph on various issues since DeSantis has walked himself into a corner, politically speaking.

On abortion, Haley can sound like the “pragmatist” in the room while DeSantis must stick to a harder pro-life line. Or immigration, for example, where Haley talks tough, DeSantis must talk tougher or risk alienating his core conservative supporters.

The problem for DeSantis is that his core of support is shrinking. If you like DeSantis because of Trump, why not just stick with Trump? If you like DeSantis because he’s not Trump, then why not find someone who isn’t pretending to be Trump?

There was never any breaking dam of support where MAGA voters flocked en masse to DeSantis because they felt Trump was simply too coarse or too unpolished to win a national election again. On the other hand, Trump’s support has only strengthened over the past twelve months, indictments be damned. DeSantis, on the other hand, coming off his big Florida victory just over a year ago, has stalled with the supporters he needs most.

Given how the establishment circles in DC loved Haley’s in-your-face debate performance in September, look for more of the same dialed up a notch coming up in November.

There’s been a smugness about DeSantis in recent weeks that seems to show a bubbling of frustration from the candidate. Why hasn’t he been able to parlay his Florida success into a national campaign? Despite his popularity, it’s impossible to run against Donald Trump targeting Trump voters with a MAGA-friendly message. Now, as DeSantis wades into criticizing Trump, that task becomes more and more difficult.

It may soon come down to Nikki Haley as the last anti-Trump candidate standing.