In a headline-making poll from American Research Group (ARG) released just before the holiday weekend, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley appears to be within striking distance of former President Donald Trump in the New Hampshire GOP primary.
According to the numbers from ARG, Trump is maintaining just a four-point lead over Haley as she blows away her remaining competition in the Granite State.
The Haley people are thrilled with this number while team DeSantis crumbles in the early primary contests. However, is a four-point margin-of-error Trump lead even believable considering the mountain of polling data that says otherwise?
According to The Hill, separate poll numbers from St. Anselm College released at the same time still give Trump a 14-point lead, but Haley is consolidating support:
The ARG poll showed Trump with 33 percent support in New Hampshire and Haley at 29 percent, with the rest of the field well behind.
Regardless of whether the Granite State primary is really that close, Haley’s move up is real.
Another poll in recent days, from Saint Anselm College, showed Haley at 30 percent support, double the backing she drew in a survey from the same organization in September. The Saint Anselm poll showed Haley behind Trump by 14 points.
Political observers in New Hampshire are impressed by Haley’s rise even as they are circumspect about just how far it will take her.
“Haley has got real momentum, and she has been building it over a period of months,” said Jim Merrill, a GOP strategist in New Hampshire who is not working for any of the presidential campaigns.
On average, among recent polls in New Hampshire, Trump is still leading by double-digits but the race has tightened over the past 30 days.
What’s happening in New Hampshire is probably more a case of Haley picking up dejected DeSantis supporters and closing ranks with the rest of the anti-Trump vote. Chris Christie is still hanging around in this poll at 13%, though he’d be best to drop out to help Haley in his quest to defeat Trump.
That scenario seems entirely plausible before the primaries start or at least before New Hampshire. Christie could drop out and endorse Haley to lend her more support to match or beat Trump in the Granite State primary.
Here’s another curve ball. In light of the ARG numbers putting Haley just four points down, then there’s this giving Trump an eye-popping 30-point lead over Haley:
? 2024 New Hampshire GOP Primary
• Trump — 52% (+30)
• Haley — 22%
• DeSantis — 10%
• Christie — 6%
• Ramaswamy — 4%
• Hutchinson — 1%• @UMassLowell | YouGov (B+)
• 450 Likely voters | December 7-18https://t.co/XUP6zo3hKl pic.twitter.com/OfaEqM7y6c— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 21, 2023
Those numbers in the UMass poll above from InteractivePolls on X showing Trump up 30 points on Haley were gathered between Dec. 7 and Dec. 18. The ARG numbers giving Trump just a four-point lead were gathered between Dec. 14 and Dec. 20. Polling in December is fickle and subject to holiday jitter, especially among a small sample electorate as New Hampshire.
In a related story, reports surfaced late last week that Trump was floating the idea of Haley as a vice presidential pick. According to CBS News, the feedback was not kind:
Former President Donald Trump has been asking allies and advisers for their thoughts about Nikki Haley as a potential vice presidential candidate, two sources familiar with the conversations tell CBS News.
The feedback from the MAGA crowd regarding putting Haley on the ticket if Trump wins the GOP nomination has been overwhelmingly negative, according to these GOP sources. Politico first reported that Trump allies are working to quash the possibility of a Trump-Haley ticket.
A Trump-Haley ticket, at this point, seems unlikely, but not impossible. If Trump thought it would improve his chances, he’d “forgive” Haley’s prior Trump-bashing and add her to the ticket. Still though, that one seems like a very, very long shot.
The bottom line is that the race up north may be tighter than anyone’s guess, and Haley may do better than the polls even suggest, but Trump may do the same as well.
For now, take the ARG poll as somewhat of an outlier since nothing else shows a race remotely that close.
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