There’s been a lot of new polling data coming out in the lead-up to the Iowa caucuses next month and none of it is good for Joe Biden.
A new poll from CNN/SRRI finds Donald Trump beating Biden in Michigan and Georgia if the 2024 presidential election were held today. The floor is falling out from under the Biden administration as Americans are less and less convinced that anyone in the White House has a clue as to what’s going on in the economy on Main Street:
Former President Donald Trump has the upper hand over President Joe Biden in two critical battleground states – Michigan and Georgia – with broad majorities in both states holding negative views of the sitting president’s job performance, policy positions and sharpness, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
In Georgia, a state Biden carried by a very narrow margin in 2020, registered voters say they prefer Trump (49%) over Biden (44%) for the presidency in a two-way hypothetical matchup. In Michigan, which Biden won by a wider margin, Trump has 50% support to Biden’s 40%, with 10% saying they wouldn’t support either candidate even after being asked which way they lean. In both Michigan and Georgia, the share of voters who say they wouldn’t support either candidate is at least as large as the margin between Biden and Trump.
Voters may say they don’t like either choice–Biden or Trump–but they’re taking their current frustration out on the sitting incumbent.
It’s Biden’s job performance number dragging him way, way down, even among voters in his party:
Biden’s struggles in both states are apparent in voters’ impressions of his performance as president, and their views on how his policy positions, ability to understand their problems, stamina and sharpness fail to live up to their image of an ideal president.
Overall, just 35% in Michigan and 39% in Georgia approve of Biden’s job performance, the surveys find, and majorities in both states say his policies have worsened economic conditions in the country (54% in Georgia, 56% in Michigan).
Biden can’t be sitting at a terrible 35% approval rating in Michigan without Democrats turning on him en masse, never mind independents and Republicans. Biden is losing the moderate to left-leaning middle, likely the suburban voters he won in 2020 and a broad array of other groups:
Those grim numbers partially reflect softness among his base: About one-quarter of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in each state disapprove of Biden, and a little more than 4 in 10 say his policies have not helped the country’s economy. Biden’s campaign is working to sell voters on the success of his economic agenda, with a recently launched ad in Michigan focused on small businesses and the middle class.
As the saying goes, if you’re explaining, you’re losing, and the White House is doing an awful lot of explaining to voters why they should trust the Biden administration’s economic propaganda rather than the economic reality. Cutting ads to convince Democrat-leaning voters in Michigan (!) should be enough of a warning sign that Biden is perhaps the worst option Democrats could put forth in 2024.
If Biden is struggling this much in blue Michigan, Georgia and other red-tilting states like Arizona are going to be a blood bath in 2024.
Trump wins on just about every metric set forth to voters:
Most voters in both states say Biden, who’s 81, does not have the attributes they’re looking for in a president when it comes to his policy positions (57% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia), his ability to understand the problems of people like them (60% in Michigan, 56% in Georgia) or his sharpness and stamina (69% in Michigan, 66% in Georgia).
Fewer in each state say that Trump, who’s 77, falls short of their expectations for a president on those same measures. But Trump fares worse than Biden on temperament – 57% in Michigan and 58% in Georgia say the former president doesn’t have the temperament they’re looking for, compared with about half who say the same about Biden.
All of this makes it abundantly clear why Democrats are trying to put Donald Trump in prison before Election Day next year. If they dump Joe Biden, they get Kamala Harris, someone who polls even worse than Biden. If it’s Harris, she’ll probably have a fight with the likes of Gavin Newsom for the nomination. That would immediately create an ugly situation on the Democratic side.
By giving Joe Biden the nod in 2024 along with Kamala Harris as the check-the-box VP, Democrats boxed themselves in and it shows.
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