New Hampshire Was Nikki Haley’s High Water Mark

There are two opposing narratives coming out of New Hampshire’s results on Tuesday night.

While it’s true Donald Trump easily won New Hampshire without a sweat, did he win by a decisive enough margin to deliver a full knock-out blow to Nikki Haley? The answer depends on who you ask.

The Nikki Haley narrative

If you ask the Haley campaign, Trump is on the ropes after only winning by 11 points in New Hampshire. After all, most polls had him performing better than that. Trump seems vulnerable all of a sudden which is all the more reason for Haley to continue her campaign to South Carolina and beyond. She’s giving the people a voice to discard the status quo and go all-in on girl power in 2024.

Haley took it to the “political class” and proved them wrong, so she claims:

Thank you, New Hampshire! The political class wanted us to believe that this race was over before it even began. You proved them wrong, and I am so grateful. It’s time to put the negativity and chaos behind us. Our fight is not over, because we have a country to save. pic.twitter.com/DDA7VjPTjZ

— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) January 24, 2024

Trump’s margin in New Hampshire declined from 2016 when he won by 20 points in a crowded field. That means, they claim, he’s less popular now than he was then even though his vote share is larger, but pay no attention to that. Haley remains focused and committed to seeing it through to her home state of South Carolina.

In Haley’s world, it’s Trump who should drop out.

The honest narrative

This race was over before it started.

I was tempted to stop there and call it a day, but let’s explore deeper. The mechanics of Haley’s vote share in New Hampshire is like a mirage in the desert. It looks somewhat convincing to get over 40% support. Maybe she has a point? Maybe Republicans are ready to move on from MAGA.

Then reality sets in. There is no escaping that Haley’s support comes almost exclusively from Democrats and independents who plan to vote for Joe Biden in November:

70% of Nikki Haley voters in New Hampshire were not registered Republicans. pic.twitter.com/XNJSXMkBga

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) January 24, 2024

If we take away two-thirds of Haley’s vote total and discard it as crossover votes from people who have no intention of voting Republican in the general election, her support should be more like 30% at best, probably lower.

In other words, among Republicans, Trump trounced Haley by a 40 or 50-point margin, a victory that truly would’ve ended her campaign last night. However, given the meaningless Democratic primary and Trump derangement syndrome driving votes for Haley, the results are a headline grabber until you dig deeper.

It was Trump who won among every group of Republicans by a sizable margin:

Donald Trump is winning nearly every traditional Republican voting bloc group in the New Hampshire primary, according to NBC News exit poll results. https://t.co/rkI6IDjvgs pic.twitter.com/MjLh1ZfuCe

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 24, 2024

Furthermore, the “political class,” for what it’s worth, is the one propping up Haley. She has the billionaire GOP donor class behind her, not Trump. It’s Haley raking in money from the Koch network and other donors who dislike Trump and don’t mind blowing a few hundred million on a losing campaign.

What about South Carolina?

This is where it gets interesting. According to polls, Haley is on the ropes in her home state. There is no expectation she can perform anywhere near her plateau in New Hampshire.

As Politico notes, the Deep South will not save her:

But New Hampshire is essentially the friendliest territory Haley can expect — an electorate swarmed by moderates and independents on Tuesday — and it only gets harder from here.

Any momentum Haley can claim out of New Hampshire runs into daunting polls and an expensive, month-long campaign to reverse them in a state where, if not for her connections, she’d likely have little chance of success.

Haley is pushing forward: Her campaign is launching TV ads in South Carolina starting on Wednesday, and Haley has planned a Wednesday night campaign event near Charleston.

South Carolina’s electorate is far more conservative and more evangelical — the types of voters among whom Trump has dominated in the first two nominating contests this month. It’s an electorate that’s different from the college-educated moderates and independents who comprised Haley’s coalition in New Hampshire.

Haley’s real problem is that South Carolina looks more like Iowa than New Hampshire in terms of the GOP grassroots.

Without a cushion of Democrats and independents, Haley’s margin is more in line with what the margin among actual GOP voters was in New Hampshire. She hits a ceiling of 30% on a good day against Trump’s super-majority support.

Haley will enjoy riding the media narrative for the next month into the Palmetto State. She’ll revel in being called the “underdog” who is giving Trump a run for his money. The reality on the ground doesn’t match that narrative and it will be abundantly clear moving forward.