Latest NY Times Poll: Trump Tops Biden in 5 Crucial Swing States

For what it’s worth, it sure seems like these ongoing Trump trials haven’t had the intended effect Democrats were hoping for.

As the summer sprint of the 2024 presidential campaign heats up, President Biden is on defense in five key swing states. 

According to the latest polling data from The New York Times and Siena College, former President Trump is leading across the board with an ever-expanding gap:

Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.

The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.

The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.

The included chart shows some eye-popping numbers. Trump leading by twelve points in Nevada? Take a look:

The margins are similar between registered and likely voters. Furthermore, it makes little difference when adding Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to states where he will qualify to appear on the ballot, Trump still leads.

The only state where Biden clings to life is Wisconsin and only by a margin-of-error difference.

Why the discontent among the populous? The Times believes it’s the obvious answer: Biden’s failure to be the “normalcy” that he promised and his lackluster economic policies:

The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life. A majority of voters still desire the return to normalcy promised by Mr. Biden in the last campaign, but voters in battleground states remain particularly anxious, unsettled and itching for change. Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.

Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.

Like it or not, voters have now had a direct comparison between the Trump years versus the Biden years, and they’re leaning toward a re-run of the Trump years. Before the onset of COVID-19, it appeared Trump was sailing to re-election with a booming economy and record-low unemployment. B

Joe Biden has been nothing short of a complete disaster for the American working and middle class as budgets continue to be stretched for the essentials. Meanwhile, the President says voters are too stupid to realize the wonderful job he’s done for them:

President Empathy is having a difficult time finding his empathy for the inflationary hardship his policies have inflicted on the American people. If the economy was as good as Biden says it is, his poll numbers wouldn’t be tanking across the board.

On Saturday, Trump held a rally in deep-blue New Jersey and had by some estimates between 80,000 and 100,000 people show up. Biden couldn’t get a crowd that large if he was giving away money.

There is a palpable movement toward Trump as voters continue to reject Biden’s status quo of endless economic malaise.

It’s like President Obama said. Never underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to “f–k things up.”

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Nate Ashworth

The Founder and Editor-In-Chief of Election Central. He's been blogging elections and politics for over a decade. He started covering the 2008 Presidential Election which turned into a full-time political blog in 2012 and 2016 that continues today.

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