There has been a lot of back-and-forth communication between the campaigns of Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. throughout recent months. So much so that RFK and Trump apparently speak regularly and the former president almost convinced the nephew of Camelot to endorse his candidacy before the Republican National Convention.
As it stands, RFK Jr. demurred on the endorsement last month but it doesn’t mean it’s entirely out of the cards. The Democratic Party has done a lot to anger Kennedy to the point where, according to his VP, Nicole Shanahan, there’s a viable chance he could drop out and “join forces” with Donald Trump sooner rather than later:
Nicole Shanahan, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, said in a new interview that the Kennedy-Shanahan campaign faces a choice between staying in the presidential race — which would “risk” helping Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris win — or dropping out to “join forces” with former President Donald Trump.
It’s a blunt admission after months of criticism from Democrats that the Kennedy campaign appeared more concerned with helping Trump than it was in running a truly independent bid for president. And it comes as the campaign continues to hemorrhage money, despite multimillion-dollar injections of cash from Shanahan herself.
In a new interview on the podcast “Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu,” Shanahan blasted the Democratic Party for trying to “sabotage” their campaign, adding that “one of the biggest mistakes of my life” was her past support for the Democrats. Admitting she’s “acknowledging how bad things are,” Shanahan said that “technically, we could win,” as she mused about the campaign’s path forward after a period of setbacks.
Here’s Shanahan explaining the campaign’s crossroads on the Impact Theory podcast:
RFK’s VP Nicole Shanahan says they are debating whether to stay in the race or drop out and join forces with Trump:
“There’s two options that we're looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Waltz presidency because we… pic.twitter.com/O3HrLbbCLO
— End Tribalism in Politics (@EndTribalism) August 20, 2024
Some observers may scoff at the notion that an RFK Jr. endorsement could do much to sway the race one way or another. To that end, all you need to do is examine recent election cycles to see where tens of thousands of votes ended up swaying Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to Donald Trump in 2016. This year could be a similarly sharp margin where every vote counts and Democrats may have dug their own hole by consistently and repeatedly trying to undercut and insult RFK Jr. at every possible turn.
According to Philip Klein at National Review, an RFK Jr. endorsement is not without potential pitfalls but should not be underestimated:
If RFK Jr. endorses Trump, however, one has to assume that on net, Trump gains more of his supporters than Harris does. This may be a small number, but still enough to make a huge difference.
Recall that in 2020, Trump lost Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia by about 43,000 votes. Had those gone the other way, it would have resulted in an Electoral College tie. This year, the RealClearPolitics average has seven states currently within two points or less.
It is of course possible that an RFK Jr. endorsement would have downsides. The Harris campaign would immediately attempt to tie all the odd statements RFK Jr. has made over the years to Trump and use it as part of their anti-“weird” campaign.
Either way, however, the RFK Jr. factor is a major wildcard in the race that nobody should sleep on.
Sure, there are downsides for Trump potentially but it seems like the upside would be greater. In 2016, it was Jill Stein who many Democrats blame for handing Trump the presidency. Her margin in the above-mentioned states likely ate away at Hillary’s overall vote total and might have been the difference. In 2024, RFK Jr. could be doing the same to Trump.
As of late, the rhetoric from RFK Jr. against his former party seems to be a bit more intense:
The Democratic Party positions itself as the party of liberty.
Kamala Harris says that Americans should make personal decisions without the “government telling them what to do.” Tim Walz’s Golden Rule is “Mind your own damn business.”
In view of the censorship,…
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) August 20, 2024
There are likely still more weekly plot twists to come in this election cycle. Stay tuned.
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