The political world received a crashing wake-up on Sunday when the latest New York Times/Siena College poll was released showing a seismic shift in the presidential race. In previous iterations of the poll, Kamala Harris held a growing and steady national lead. Donald Trump, it seemed, was being eaten alive by the Harris honeymoon phase and would be playing defense heading into the fall.
Well, that all changed with the latest numbers revealing a new dynamic, giving Democrats heartburn as both candidates prep for Tuesday’s debate. The poll found Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris nationally, a disastrous scenario given the Electoral College bias that already favors Republicans, Politico reports:
The poll, from The New York Times and Siena College, has Trump at 48 percent to 47 percent for Harris among likely voters, within the poll’s margin of error. The results are similar to a survey from the pair from July, right after President Joe Biden dropped his reelection bid.
The poll comes ahead of Harris and Trump’s ABC News debate on Tuesday night, the only scheduled debate so far between the two candidates. And that debate could be even more crucial for the vice president: According to the poll, 28 percent of likely voters said they feel like they need to learn more about Harris, compared to 9 percent who said they need to know more about Trump.
Additionally, 47 percent of likely voters viewed Harris as too liberal, while 32 percent of likely voters saw Trump as too conservative.
The NYT/Siena survey is one of the few high-quality, national polls that did not show the vice president receiving at least a small bump following her quickly capturing the nomination and her coronation at the party’s nominating convention last month in Chicago.
It’s one poll but it’s a poll Democrats love which is making it even more difficult for them to choke down right now. After all the love and fake affection given to Harris in August, she’s hitting Joe Biden levels of support after Labor Day? Apparently “hot brat summer” was not a worthwhile political strategy.
Looking at these numbers from a historical perspective, Harris is running well behind the previous Democratic candidates in 2016 and 2020:
BREAKING: New York Times/Siena College poll has Trump leading nationally 48% to 47%.
Harris is running way behind the past Two Democrat Nominees.
In Sept 2016, The NYT poll had Clinton +2
In Sept 2020, The NYT poll had Biden +8
This poll is very bad news for Harris.
— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 8, 2024
As Jeffrey Blehar writes at National Review, the NYT/Siena poll is simply more proof that an empty campaign will eventually lose its luster:
For the most recent New York Times/Siena national poll of the election is out this Sunday morning, and Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally among likely voters — not registered voters, likely voters — by a 48–47 margin. (Forty-eight percent, incidentally, would if true represent a higher share of the vote than Trump received at the ballot box in either 2016 or 2020.)
The ruse isn’t working. The media can try to continue selling Harris as a “fresh start,” but voters are smart enough not to buy it for a second — if for no other reason than that she utterly refuses to tell voters what she actually is for in any way they are allowed to query. Voters want change, and if the race remains where it is now, they are about to get it in the strangest way possible: heading back to the future with Donald Trump.
There is no disconnecting Harris from the Biden-Harris administration and Joe Biden’s massive failure as Commander-in-chief. It’s impossible and the joke that somehow Harris will start working “on day one to lower prices” is even less believable since she’s in charge right now. It’s a slap in the face to voters while Democrats treat everyone as too stupid to realize Kamala Harris is the sitting Vice President. She’s in charge right now, rampant inflation is her administration’s fault.
The Biden failures coupled with Harris’ inability to form a coherent policy argument added to her terrible voice presidential pick in Minnesota Governor Tim Walz have given voters nothing to cheer for. Instead, the Harris-Walz house of cards is finding it difficult to stand amid even the slightest scrutiny.
The debate on Tuesday night will be closely watched for signs that Harris might be able to revive her campaign that’s currently stuck on the down escalator. If not, this race is starting to look like it did back in June with Trump’s support higher than it was in 2016 and 2020 while Democrats struggle to gain headway on any issue.
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