Early Vote Data Leans Deep Red in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, And… Virginia?!?

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Forget the polls, we already have solid data to examine and a lot of it is quite surprising.

Not every state provides a meaningful level of early vote detail, but several do. Among the notables, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia provide some details about who is voting down to the precinct level. Obviously, we don’t know which candidate any individual voter selected but this information can be modeled and predicted based on past behavior and publicly available data.

At the moment, and for well over a week now, deep red counties have vastly overwhelmed their previous early vote numbers in state after state. Meanwhile, deep blue counties are seeing flat enthusiasm and waning participation in these early voting weeks. If you’ve paid any attention in recent years, early voting and voting by mail has typically been embraced by Democrats and shunned by Republicans for various reasons. That paradigm is shifting in 2024.

So, where do things stand today? Here’s a state-by-state breakdown. Take it all with a grain of salt as a small glimpse into what the electorate might look like on election night.

Arizona

Arizona has been voting since Oct. 9 so we have just over a week of data to examine. The state’s largest county, Maricopa, home of Phoenix, usually decides the outcome. At the moment, it’s trending very red compared to 2020, as of a few days ago:

As one commenter put it, “Republicans are not f–king around in Maricopa County this year.” Given the uncertainty of hoping that everything goes perfectly on Election Day, it seems like the GOP is banking votes early and enthusiastically when compared to previous years. Extrapolating this further, as Maricopa goes, so goes the state. Pima County, the second-most populated area behind Maricopa, is also seeing a similar trend:

Georgia

The state of Georgia has only been voting early since Oct. 15 but the results are worrying for Democrats hoping to hold the Peach State a second time in four years. From the data, early voter enthusiasm is big, but mostly big in the counties that previously trended for Trump:

Democrats need to run up the score in Atlanta and surrounding blue-leaning counties. If they’re flat or lagging, it’s a bad sign for a Kamala victory.

North Carolina

North Carolina started early voting this week in many localities. The Tarheel State hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Barack Obama won there in 2008. Even in the environment of 2020, Donald Trump still won the state handily. This time around will be no different, the question is simply the margin and what it tells us about the general shift of the country and surrounding states.

Once again, it’s the rural red-leaning parts of the state, even those recently devasted by Hurricane Helene, showing the greatest enthusiasm and driving up early Republican vote totals:

The trend continues across the board outside of Yancey County as well:

North Carolina is fools’ gold for Democrats and they spend time and energy every cycle thinking they can rekindle the Obama coalition once again. So far, Kamala Harris shows no sign of coming close.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania early voting started recently but specific dates vary by location. The Keystone State is a little more difficult to judge but the early mail data is available to examine. The same trend can be seen based on mail-in ballot requests and returns as demonstrated in neighboring states. Once again, the red-leaning counties are leading the way while blue-leaning counties are lagging compared to 2020:

If you take these trends to Election Day, Pennsylvania is going to be an uphill climb for Democrats:

In most scenarios where Donald Trump wins the Electoral College, Pennsylvania is the key to that victory. He can lose various states and still win the White House so long as he carries Pennsylvania.

Virginia

Wait, Virginia? Yes, Virginia, a state that went +5 for Hillary Clinton and then +10 for Joe Biden. The Commonwealth is not supposed to be competitive or on the list of “swing states” but, here we are. Virginia started early voting back on Sept. 20, a full 45 days before Election Day. That means we have weeks of data now to examine and, hold your breath, the same trends are happening in rural counties where turnout is off the charts:

Democrats will likely win early voting in Virginia but it’s the question of their margin carrying into Election Day that matters. When Glenn Youngkin won in 2021, reversing the Biden +10 victory of 2020, it was the rural counties voting en masse that counteracted the deep-blue areas of northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs.

Youngkin proved that with a proper turnout machine and motivation, Republicans could win statewide in the Old Dominion.

Some observers are very bullish in Virginia but Trump still has a heavy lift:

Trump doesn’t have to win Virginia outright to win the presidency, he proved that in 2016. The takeaway is that if Kamala Harris barely wins the state by a margin smaller than Hillary Clinton did, it’s unlikely she will survive in any of the other states Hillary lost such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.

For a disclaimer, early vote data is subject to change and modeled data can always be wrong, so don’t shoot the messenger.

The bottom line is that the 2024 election is shaping up to be a much more Trump-friendly environment than 2020 ever thought of being.

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Nate Ashworth

The Founder and Editor-In-Chief of Election Central. He's been blogging elections and politics for over a decade. He started covering the 2008 Presidential Election which turned into a full-time political blog in 2012 and 2016 that continues today.

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