In other news, congratulations to President-elect JD Vance in November 2028 if Democrats truly think the Kamala Harris retread is a worthwhile endeavor.
With 2024 barely in the rearview, it’s never too early to jump four years ahead and start getting primary voters on the record today. The entertainment purpose here is pretty clear. Once we get to early 2027, it’s likely Vance will remain at the top spot for Republicans but will Kamala Harris really still be the flavor for Democrats? Doubtful.
Enough blathering, here are the results from an Echelon poll of 457 Democratic primary voters conducted over the past week:
🚨 NEW: 2028 Democratic primary poll
🔵 Harris: 41%
🔴 Newsom: 8%
🟤 Shapiro: 7%
🟡 Buttigieg: 6%
🟢 Walz: 6%
🟣 Ocasio-Cortez: 4%Echelon | 11/14-18 | N=457
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 19, 2024
There’s plenty of time for a new Trump fighter to emerge among Democrats between now and 2028. This list seems a bit stale at this point, aside from maybe the addition of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Will Harris want to embarrass herself on the national stage again? She lost the Democratic primary in 2019 before a single vote was cast pulling in around 2% according to polls. She just lost a massive electoral college landslide to Donald Trump despite the entire media complex on her side. If I’m Gavin Newsom or anyone else, that’s what I’ll be reminding voters if Harris decides to run. She’s a proven loser on the national level with no accomplishments of any kind.
As for Newsom, he’s more adept at campaigning than Harris but he’s still a noted liar and a California progressive ready to impose his left-coast views on middle America.
Buttigieg is, well, a footnote in history having served under Biden doing an arguably terrible job. He performed so poorly, in fact, he said he probably won’t be running for office ever again.
AOC for president? Democrats are not that dumb but maybe conservative groups should start a shadow campaign for her right now. Nothing says winning rural America like banning gas stoves and carbon taxes.
Shapiro, depending on what happens between now and then, seems like someone who could have a broader appeal having already won statewide in Pennsylvania, something Democrats will need to do in four years. He’s still an aloof liberal and terrible on policy but probably a better pick than Harris.
As for the Republican side, Vice President-elect JD Vance leads the field:
🚨 NEW: 2028 GOP primary poll
🔴 Vance: 37%
🟤 Ramaswamy: 9%
🔵 Haley: 9%
🟡 DeSantis: 8%
🟢 Cruz: 5%
🟣 Rubio: 5%Echelon | 11/14-18 | N=483
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 19, 2024
If Donald Trump has a successful four years in office and Vance runs on his record, does any Republican challenge him? I wouldn’t think Ron DeSantis would embarrass himself twice if there was no clear path to the nomination. He already lost to MAGA once, he better quit now and hope for 2032.
Haley is not even in the mix and has no serious chance to ever lead the GOP while Trump is still the driving force, probably even beyond that.
Cruz is a great Senator and fantastic on policy but does he have what it takes to charm GOP primary voters? Signs point to no.
Rubio or Ramaswamy would seem like the second-tier representatives of MAGA in 2028 if Vance is not the top choice or can’t clear the primary field before it starts.
Bookmark this one and come back in three years to have a good laugh when the 2028 election comes down to Bernie Sanders versus Matt Gaetz, the battle we didn’t know we needed.
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