Is Sen. Joe Manchin Planning to Leave the Democratic Party?

There have always been rumors of the possibility that West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin may decide to up and leave the Democratic Party. As a Democrat in a state Donald Trump carried by 39 points in 2020, somehow Manchin continues to survive, and almost thrive. His politics don’t always align with the party, particularly on spending and the national debt, but is it enough for him to actually consider leaving the party and joining Republicans?

Not so fast on the potential that he would join the GOP. Manchin now admits that yes, he did tell colleagues he considered changing his affiliation, but not to Republican:

A day after dismissing as “bullsh**” a Mother Jones report that he was considering it, Manchin told reporters he had discussed the possibility of becoming an independent “if I’m an embarrassment to my Democrat colleagues, my caucus, the president being the leader of the Democratic Party.”

“I said, me being a moderate centrist Democrat, if that causes you a problem, let me know and I’d switch to be an independent. But I’d still be caucusing with Democrats,” Manchin said. “That’s the only thing that was ever discussed. No one accepted that.” He did not specify the colleagues by name.

Of course no one accepted it since it would ultimately end up weakening Democrats in the Senate. Manchin is “moderate” in the sense that he’s far less liberal and progressive than most of his Senate colleagues, save Sen. Kyrsten Sinema who aligns closely with Manchin on many things. He’s still fairly liberal on many things, but not liberal enough for democratic-socialists like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

However, Manchin may have more to lose by leaving the Democratic Party than he would gain by switching affiliation:

Manchin has, repeatedly, proven that he can get elected as a Democrat in West Virginia despite the state’s clear Republican lean. In 2018, a very bad year for Democrats nationally, Manchin still managed to hold his seat in the state — albeit with 50% — against a much-touted Republican candidate. Six years earlier, Manchin won with 61% even while Obama was losing the state to Mitt Romney by 26 points.

There’s no reason to believe then that Manchin MUST switch parties if he wants to have a chance for a third full term in 2024.

Now consider Manchin’s current position within the Democratic Party. Sure, some liberals — like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — bang on him for his opposition to, say, the broad effort to reform voting rights in the country or a $3.5 trillion social safety net proposal.

But, in the main, he is in a position of complete power. He has a direct line to Biden.

Manchin has power as the Democratic deal maker, the one who can stand in the way and negotiate what he wants in certain bills. Few other Senators have that same influence, which is what we pointed out back in March that Joe Manchin is more consequential to the country than practically anyone who surrounds Biden in the White House.

In the end, Manchin’s talk of leaving may have been less a threat and more of an admission that a lot of his colleagues find him to be ruining Biden’s far-left progressive agenda. It’s Manchin and Sinema, the only two Senators really able to slow down what’s going on with Biden’s $3.5 trillion “Build Back Better” boondoggle bill filled with liberal giveaways and trillions in social spending slush.

If Manchin did leave Democrats, he says he would still caucus with them meaning they would retain whatever standing they previously had, which is currently a 50/50 split with Republicans. It doesn’t appear as though Manchin is talking about switching parties to give the GOP a 51/49 advantage, as some have speculated.

Instead, Manchin will remain a Democrat, for now, standing in the way and irritating his colleagues intent on running the country into the ground faster than Manchin is comfortable with.