Vice President Kamala Harris was stumping in Virginia on Thursday for former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe in support of his failing bid to win a second non-consecutive term as Governor. In the last days of the campaign, several big-name Democrats will be visiting or have already visited the state in support of McAuliffe, including President Barack Obama, First Lady Jill Biden, and next week, President Biden himself.
Having deeply unpopular figures like Biden and Harris, both underwater in approval among Virginia voters, probably won’t do much to move the needle in McAuliffe’s favor. Once holding a double-digit lead over Republican Glenn Youngkin, McAuliffe has fallen hard as he tried to nationalize the race and run against Donald Trump, a name not on the ballot.
In short, McAuliffe is running as the pro-abortion candidate on national issues, while Youngkin is focused on state and local issues people actually care about, like making sure parents are respected and have a strong voice in their child’s education. For over a year now, parents and students have been kicked around by Covid policies and used as pawns by left-wing activist school boards eager to assert control over school children. Youngkin has capitalized on this, with McAuliffe plainly stating he does not believe parents should be telling schools what they should teach.
When news broke in Loudoun County that the school board knowingly covered up a sexual assault over fears it would detail transgender bathroom policies, Youngkin capitalized on the issue and called for investigations into the matter while McAuliffe remain silent. The cover-up by the board in May led to yet another assault in October by the same student in another school within the same district, a truly heinous situation where parents were being disrespected and students left unprotected. Meanwhile, Terry McAuliffe would like to remind you that he’s not Donald Trump.
The trend lines for McAuliffe are brutal, once up 10 points among independent voters, now Youngkin is favored by 10 with the same group according to the latest polling from Monmouth University:
The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).
Youngkin has improved his standing in southwest Virginia, a typical GOP stronghold, and continued to reduce McAuliffe’s advantage in liberal areas of the state like the I-95 corridor from Richmond up to the DC suburbs of Fairfax County. In total, the race was McAuliffe’s to lose, and he’s blowing it in a spectacular fashion by supporting the act of putting government in between parents and their children.
Youngkin has made inroads by being the candidate of the people, of kitchen table issues like education and the cost of groceries. McAuliffe is running against Donald Trump and spending money on abortion ads trying to turn out his base. For McAuliffe, however, his base is disillusioned with the man they put in charge of the White House. Biden’s approval rating is underwater by 10 points in Virginia, a fact that continues dragging down the entire Democratic field:
Looking at the national picture, President Joe Biden gets a negative 43% approve and 52% disapprove rating from Virginia voters, which is down from his 46% to 49% rating in August.
Biden won Virginia by 10 points last November, now he’s underwater in a state filled with voters that chose him over Donald Trump. Call it buyer’s remorse or an awakening to the fact the Biden has been a total failure, and the country was much better off under Trump. Perhaps it’s also proof that no one was truly motivated to vote for Biden other than as the “not Trump” option.
However you slice it, McAuliffe is a sinking ship right now. He’s making moves of desperation, lashing out at reporters, lashing out at his own party leaders, and generally looking like the stench of loser has set in.
The most recent polls show the trend heavily in Youngkin’s favor, with an extremely motivated voter base to make it happen. It’s plausible to see Youngkin win in November with anywhere from a 2 to 4 point victory over McAuliffe, maybe higher as undecideds finally commit:
Monmouth University (10/16 – 10/19, 1,005 RV)
Youngkin 46%
McAuliffe 46%
Trafalgar Group (10/11 – 10/13, 1,095 LV)
Youngkin 48%
McAuliffe 48%
Previous numbers had McAuliffe with anywhere from a 7 to 10 point lead in September. At this point, his numbers are dropping and he can’t get to the 50% mark which is where incumbents usually need to be. While McAuliffe is not a true incumbent, he was governor of the state from 2014 to 2018, so he’s well-known to Virginia voters. Democrat Ralph Northam has held the seat since then, so McAuliffe is practically an incumbent having already held the position and running as the incumbent party. Northam is nothing to write home about either, another point that hurts McAuliffe.
If McAuliffe, after running the state for four years, can’t get to 50% among voters who know him and know him well, he is likely toast on Election Day. Polls have typically discounted Republican candidates in Virginia anywhere from three to seven points. In 2013, when McAuliffe won, polls have overstated his final support by four points.
As this story notes, the entire Democratic Party establishment is in a panic over how badly McAuliffe has mismanaged and bungled a 10 point lead:
A creeping sense of worry among Democrats about the Virginia governor’s race spilled into the open on Wednesday, after the release of a new Monmouth University poll showing former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe deadlocked with Republican Glenn Youngkin less than two weeks before Election Day.
And the panic may be a good thing, some of them say.
When you’re spinning warning signs as good news because it will motivate your base, you probably already lost. The swing vote of suburban households outside Washington, DC, and in Richmond will decide this race. At this point, they’re rejecting McAuliffe in favor of Youngkin’s vision for the Commonwealth. A vision of lower taxes and smaller government.
All the energy and momentum favors the GOP this year which feels a lot like 2009 in that regard when Republicans swept all three statewide Virginia races from the Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General:
The new poll also continued to show Republican voters are noticeably more enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election. Democrats say that while they’re confident about the longer-term trends in the state — Republicans haven’t won a statewide race since 2009 — the party could be in danger this year if it can’t energize its voters.
If Democrats aren’t careful, they risk losing their slim majority in the Virginia General Assembly as well, a position they took in 2017 with a motivated group of anti-Trump voters.
In 2021, the momentum is all on the other side, with Biden failing in the White House and Virginians ready to send Democrats packing from Richmond.
Election Day is on Tuesday, November 2. Polls in Virginia are open from 7 am to 7 pm ET.
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