Will Joe Biden Run for President in 2024? If Not, Who Would Replace Him?

Here’s an academic question on this slow Tuesday morning.

If President Biden decides not to run for reelection in 2024, which Democrat in the field is best positioned to replace him?

Arguably it would be Vice President Kamala Harris, but her approval rating is worse than Biden’s, and her performance so far has been lackluster, to be generous. If Biden bows out and Harris doesn’t clear the field, who will Democrats settle on in 2024?

Pete Buttigieg’s name is now being tossed around since he just got a trillion dollars to play with over at the Transportation Department to tackle some racist overpasses. However, Buttigieg’s rhetoric, though polished, is emptier than Kamala Harris’ list of accomplishments, so where does that leave the Dems in 2024? A candidate that’s knowledgeable about wine caves but unable to deal with issues people care about?

Politico tackled this question and found a shortlist of candidates, mostly leftovers from the 2020 Democratic field, but with a couple of new names popping up. These potential candidates have been using their time wisely to raise their profiles while Vice President Harris falters in the national spotlight:

This fall, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) boosted the mayor of Manchester, N.H., during her recent reelection campaign and is keeping in touch with allies in the critical primary state, according to people familiar with the calls. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) is on a book tour and campaigned in Virginia for Terry McAuliffe. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) endorsed left-wing and progressive candidates outside of Massachusetts this past year.

Other Democratic officials note that some other new faces could be in the mix, like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer if she wins reelection in 2022 and enjoys a good relationship with Biden.

In essence, should Biden decide to bow out in 2024, Democrats would see an open primary where a dozen or so candidates toss their hat in the ring seeking the party’s nomination. Kamala Harris hasn’t been able to scare anyone away, and with a 28% approval rating, why would the party want to waste a nomination on her when she’s far less popular than even the flailing Biden is?

Beto O’Rourke already announced plans to burn a couple hundred million bucks and lose the Texas governor’s race next year, so he’s probably out for 2024 after a future zero-for-three record.

Harris would be set up nicely for a 2024 run if Biden decides his time as president is done and he’s willing to be the bridge to a more progressive candidate. Harris as the Vice President has national recognition and clout. She has some time to build up her credentials, but she’s been unable to dig out of the hole she created for herself.

The one wrinkle for all these would-be presidents is that Biden could still decide to stay the course and run for reelection, as he said he intends to do:

Biden has said publicly and privately that he wants to run, and allies expect that will be only more likely if former President Donald Trump decides to challenge him in 2024 since Biden is skeptical of other Democrats’ prospects.

A person familiar with Biden’s conversation about his 2024 plans says “he has told people he is running and that ‘we will be prepared.'”

It’s not surprising to see Biden claiming his desire to run in 2024. If he said otherwise, his presidency would immediately be viewed as a lame duck and he would lose almost all of his influence as the party started to look down the road. With Biden still in the driver’s seat as the leader of the free world, it would be foolish to signal the end to his own presidency until much closer to the start of the 2024 Democratic primary, perhaps in early 2023.

Biden still wants to accomplish some things, and announcing himself as a one-term president would be a surefire way to kill his progress.

Quite frankly, names like Harris, Buttigieg, Booker, and Warren are all yesterday’s Democrats. They all had a shot in 2020, and voters walked away in favor of old-faithful, Joe Biden. The only other candidate with a true base is Bernie Sanders, but at his age, there’s no way he’s launching a third presidential campaign.

Democrats need to look outside the beltway and outside the long list of mid-tier 2020 coastal elite candidates that had their time. Yes, Buttigieg is from Indiana, but remember, wine caves. If Democrats hem themselves into picking from a list of proven losers, like settling for Kamala Harris, they start at a severe disadvantage even beyond their current dismal outlook over the next few years.

Democrats need someone outside the predictable progressive mold of repugnant wokeness. They need someone like Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. He’d never make it past a Democratic primary because he’s too sane, but he would play well in a general election and carry more swing states than Democrats could possibly imagine.