Black Friday Inflation: Products to Avoid and How Supply Chain Problems are Changing Thanksgiving Shopping

Like many households around the county, Thanksgiving is a day for family, eating, reflecting, giving thanks, and then shopping. Some stores open Thanksgiving night while others remain in wait for doorbusters on Friday morning. Of course, with online sales, the doorbuster Black Friday sales aren’t anything like they used to be.

In fact, since October, I’ve seen sale papers come in the mail with just about every retailer having “Black Friday Sales” from now until the end of time. The term has lost a lot of meaning because every day leading up to the actual Black Friday, is Black Friday, according to retailers eager to motivate holiday shoppers. What does Black Friday even mean? Well, it used to be the traditional day in the calendar year when stores went from operating in the red to finally becoming profitable and entering the “black” on their accounting ledger.

For a change, some larger retailers like Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Home Depot are staying closed on Thanksgiving Day. This is a departure from recent years when many opened on Thanksgiving night for early sales. See this page for a complete list of retailers and their Thanksgiving Black Friday hours.

So, how does Black Friday change this year? What do Biden’s record inflation and supply chain problems mean for your holiday post-Thanksgiving shopping? There are some products being hit especially hard, while many items remain available and reasonably priced. Here are some tips on what to look for and what to avoid.

Some items, especially those needing more lead time to produce or more shipping time to land domestically are seeing higher prices. There are some entire product lines to avoid this Black Friday:

Clothing
Based on the Black Friday deals being offered already, apparel discounts “are comparable to what we’ve seen in past years,” which is typically along the lines of 30% off sales sitewide, said Regina Conway, who researches sales and promotions for Slickdeals, a site that tracks retail discounts.

PS5’s and Xbox Series X’s
When it comes to PS5’s SONY, +0.36% and Xbox Series X MSFT, +0.07% gaming systems and consoles “the ‘deal’ is simply being able to access one at retail price,” said Conway. The PS5 sells for $499.99 at BestBuy BBY, -3.57% and Walmart WMT, +0.50% but was out of stock at both stores as of Friday.

Exercise equipment
If you have your eye on a new set of weights or even a Peloton PTON, +2.21%, you should wait to get it closer to the new year, said Conway. That’s when “brands lean in on folks’ resolutions to get in shape or improve their health” and offer larger discounts, she added.

Televisions
While it might be tempting to buy a new TV on Black Friday, especially when retailers are boasting seemingly “too good to be true” deals — there is often a catch, said McGrath. Usually, the TV models that go on sale on Black Friday are outdated models that will either need to be replaced or repaired in a matter of years.

Furniture
“Unless you absolutely need to replace that sectional, bed or dining room table, there’s no reason you absolutely must shop for furniture on Black Friday and divert your attention from smarter buys,” McGrath told MarketWatch.

Electronics are often hit and miss on Black Friday. It’s usually the case that better deals can be found at other times of the year. Retailers sometimes inflate or manipulate their prices so Black Friday “sale” prices seem better than they truly are. If you hunt and peck, and compare diligently, you can figure out whether you’re getting a deal.

Whatever you buy, it will probably be more expensive than it was last year at this time, or practically any other time in recent history:

The consumer price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, increased by 6.2 percent from a year ago in October, and it crept up by 0.9 percent over the course of the month alone. Regardless of the arguments over how serious a threat inflation is to the American economy right now (some economists say it’s a big deal, others that it’s not), consumers hate it. The price of food is up 5.3 percent over the last year, meaning holiday meals are going to be more expensive. Gas is pricey, too, meaning so is traveling by car. Big-ticket items, including cars, are more expensive, but so are smaller-ticket ones, like apparel.

As the linked Vox story notes, consumers may be buying differently, but they’re still buying. Christmas gifts are being purchased, and shopping continues, but the reality of inflation and logistical problems is blatantly evident.

Due to fears and warnings about supply chain problems over the past few months, many consumers started shopping earlier. Many retailers noticed this trend and began offering sales earlier as well, especially for products that were actually in stock and available. Scaring people into buying can be more effective than incentivizing them with a good deal or a ridiculous “Black Friday” doorbuster sale.

Everything has a related domino effect, from gas to groceries, to a direct link to holiday spending. Everything is related. So long as you aren’t trying to buy a car or a house this Black Friday, you’ll probably do just fine:

The supply chain issues are complicated; so is inflation. If you want to buy a new car right now, it’s going to be much pricier than it would have been a year ago. Home prices are up a ton if you’re on the market. Overall, daily life is costlier, including gas and food. And if you are spending more to put gas in your car, you might wind up spending less on Christmas presents, or at least consider it.

The bottom line, avoid the items like clothing, some electronics, exercise equipment, and furniture. Those items are best purchased outside of the holiday shopping season and can be found at better deals at different times of the year. If you wait a month or two, the Black Friday sale television may be cheaper as it’s probably an older model that came out a year ago.

Some economists are less worried because consumers, so far, are spending this holiday season, they’re just paying more and adjusting the way they buy other common items to maintain a certain level of Black Friday shopping:

Gabriella Santaniello, founder of the retail consultant firm A-Line Partners, told TheStreet that this weekend is setting up to, if not break records, than at least match pre-pandemic levels in part due to pent-up demand.

“Everybody’s talking about inflation, inflation, inflation,” Santaniello said. “While it affects things like food and gas, people do have a little bit of extra money that will last through the holidays. From what we’re seeing stores, there is still incredibly high demand.”

Inflation, Santaniello said, can change how people shop but not the act of buying overall. People may choose to buy baby diapers, which were subject to particularly brutal price hikes of 14% this year, from a generic brand instead of the more popular Huggies.

Consumers are shrewd, we all know how to make money stretch. Buying generic branded items for less than the name brands is a quick way to maintain a budget and still afford a normal level of holiday spending. That’s not to say inflation isn’t causing stress, it most assuredly is. Consumers know it and Joe Biden’s poll numbers know it.

Americans are determined to enjoy the holidays this year, and habits like Black Friday shopping are getting back in style after a previous year of uncertainty and angst.