NBC Midterm Meter: Democrats Headed for ‘Shellacking’ in November

As we fall head-first into this midterm election year, NBC News is out with a new handy tool that computes the potential outcome in November based on several factors.

The first factor is the question of whether the country is on the “right track” or “wrong track,” with 71% of the country currently saying “wrong track.”

The second data point is the President’s approval rating, which currently sits in the high thirties or low forties depending on the poll.

The final item is the congressional generic ballot, which a recent NBC News poll puts at +2 for Democrats, though others find Republicans several points ahead.

Add all of these numbers up in their current state, and NBC News projects a “shellacking” for Democrats come November:

The term “shellacking” comes courtesy of former President Obama, who famously said it as a response to Democrat losses in 2010 when Republicans re-took control of the House.

Here’s more from NBC on their new midterm meter and the various data points that go into it:

But first: Over the last 30 years, the NBC News poll has given us a good idea if the president’s party is headed for an exceptionally good midterm election, a shellacking or somewhere in-between.

And right now, the arrows are pretty much pointing in the “shellacking” territory for President Biden and the Democrats as we debut our Midterm Meter, which will use our poll to gauge the overall political environment for the president’s party.

The data is also built on historical trends from the “right track/wrong track” poll as well as presidential approval. Those trends have been born out in the last few decades to spell defeat for the party on the wrong end of the numbers:

Now let us show you what a shellacking looks like: In 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 — when the president’s party suffered big losses — overwhelming majorities said the country was headed on the wrong track before the election; each president’s job rating was below 50 percent; and the president’s party trailed on the generic ballot.

At the moment, President Biden has firmly sent the country into “wrong track” land with over two-thirds of voters saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. Couple that with Biden’s approval, a number that continues heading downward and you can see why the “shellacking” is likely to happen.

I know, it’s early, and things can change. The question is whether too many failures and bungles have been baked in that voters will be unlikely to ingratiate themselves to Biden and the Democrats before November.

Democrats imagine some magical scenario where Biden’s legislative agenda suddenly passes and is popular, inflation plummets, and Covid cases disappear. One of those items might happen, and it’s probably Covid cases decreasing but that won’t be thanks to Biden’s policies, it’ll be thanks to naturally acquired immunity from the milder omicron variant.

Build Back Better and the Biden voting bill are both deeply unpopular, and passing one or both would probably put Democrats in a worse position, yet they press forward trying anyway.

The NBC News Midterm Meter is a welcome tool to play with during the coming election cycle.