Is this a joke?
It’s not a joke, but it’s not serious, either. The chances of Liz Cheney winning the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination are about as high as her winning her own congressional primary in August. That is, slim to none, but maybe nonzero.
That doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it probably won’t happen. Still, Cheney wouldn’t rule it out after her time on the January 6 committee comes to a close and she inevitably loses her upcoming primary by 30 points or more:
Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney would face a mammoth task to win the GOP nomination over Donald Trump, should they both choose to run in 2024, according to polls and betting odds.
In a recent interview with ABC, Cheney acknowledged there is a possibility that she may run for president in 2024 in order to stop her old nemesis Trump from returning to the White House.
Cheney, one of two Republicans on the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 attack, said she has not “made a decision” about running for president in 2024.
“I’m obviously very focused on my re-election. I’m very focused on the Jan. 6 committee,” she said. “I’m very focused on my obligations to do the job that I have now. And I’ll make a decision about ’24 down the road.”
Cheney running for president in 2024 makes little sense for a few reasons.
First and foremost, there are plenty of “never Trump” or “not Trump” potential candidates that are more likable and less polarizing than she is. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan comes to mind, another quasi “never Trumper” who also hasn’t ruled out a presidential run. If someone like Hogan entered the race, there’d be no lane for Cheney.
Second, Cheney simply has no standing or popularity within the Republican Party. Back in May, a poll from a group friendly to Cheney’s opponent showed her 30 points down among her own Wyoming voters. Even if that’s overly generous to Harriet Hageman, Cheney’s GOP primary challenger, let’s say cut it in half and Cheney’s 15 points down to be generous. That’s still a terrible place for an incumbent to be sitting this close to the primary election on August 16.
It’s unclear whether Cheney is serious about a presidential run or just needling the man she’s currently working to undermine within the party. She very well could have some ideas of grandeur that she has reclaimed the Republican Party from the Trump era back to the Bush-Cheney era of 2000 and 2004, and she’s the one to carry the mantle forward. What about Jeb, maybe pull him back in as a running mate for a true Bush-Cheney ticket? Or Cheney-Bush this time?
As almost all 2024 GOP primary polls demonstrate, Donald Trump is still far and away the favorite with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis starting to nip at his heels. So far, Liz Cheney has garnered about 1% in a few surveys of GOP primary voters.
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