The fundamentals of the race haven’t changed but Democrats would like everyone to believe they have.
The generic ballot has tightened significantly in recent weeks, partly fueled by new enthusiasm among Democrats to vote for abortion access, and partly fueled by the doldrums of August where fewer people respond to polls and fewer still pay attention to politics in general.
The generic ballot is made up of public polls, however, and taken as a broad snapshot of the entire country to generically ask voters if they intend to vote for the Republican or the Democratic candidate in November.
Parties do their own internal polling of course, often at the district level to get a more solid gauge on what’s happening in crucial swing districts.
From the data coming out recently, Republicans are finding that even in districts that Biden won by more than 10 points, in some instances, the races are extremely competitive signaling many new pickup opportunities in November:
Four surveys conducted in late July reveal close races in open seats in Oregon, Colorado and California that President Joe Biden carried by between 11 and 15 points in 2020. Taken all together, GOP operatives view the data as a sign that Biden’s sinking approval numbers could drag Democratic candidates down enough to bring deep blue turf into reach.
But the numbers comport with general assessments about the state of the House map from strategists of both parties, as well as the close results of the 2021 statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Altogether, the tightening polls suggest that some super-blue seats could be in play in November, which would mean Democrats may have to expend precious resources there on defense — especially because they lack well-funded incumbents.
Virginia and New Jersey in 2021 where Republicans overperformed and Democrats underperformed are good bellwethers for 2022. Glenn Youngkin comfortably won statewide in Virginia after Biden carried the state by 10 points in 2020.
In New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli barely lost his challenge in a race where polling showed a 15-point disparity. Ciattarelli only lost by just under 3 points.
As an example of the data, take the polling from Oregon’s 6th where the GOP has an unexpected edge in a Biden +14 district:
The most encouraging poll for Republicans came in Oregon’s new 6th District, where Republican Mike Erickson led Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas by 7 points, 47 percent to 40 percent, with 13 percent undecided. In a district that Biden won by nearly 14 points, his approval rating is underwater by 20 points. Republicans lead on a generic ballot by 7 points — a rough reality for a seat that Democrats drew to be safe.
If a seat like OR-6 can be up for grabs where Biden won by 14 points, then any seat that isn’t comfortably Biden +15 or more could be a battlefield in November.
As with every “wave” election, there will be surprises in both directions. Seats that look like Republicans should win will have their own local dynamics that lead to a Democratic hold.
On the flip side, seats that looked safe will be swallowed by GOP enthusiasm and perhaps Democratic voter malaise leading to some shocking election night calls.
The generic ballot is a bird’s eye view of the House race but it takes some closer examination at the district level to see some of the real challenges Democrats are facing in the November midterms.
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