Cook Political Report: Oregon Governor Race Now A “Toss Up”

You read that right. Oregon. The blue belt buckle that sits firmly planted between California and Washington on the deep left coast.

Things have gotten so bad that Republicans appear to have a real shot at taking the state house for the first time in decades. When even liberal Democrats have become fed up with problems like ongoing homelessness and public safety concerns, you know it must be bad. Really bad.

For the duration of the summer, the race sat firmly in the “Lean Democrat” column since, well, it’s Oregon, and it’s a deeper shade of blue than even the deepest shade of blue in California. Since then, the race has shifted from “Likely Democrat,” to “Lean Democrat,” to now earning the “Toss Up” status from Cook:

With less than two months until Election Day, the 2022 gubernatorial map has seen some surprising shifts since the outset of the cycle. Republicans had initially started targeting the Rust Belt, hoping to flip control in perpetual swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. But, saddled with weak and cash-poor candidates, those contests have moved down the priority list as new opportunities have emerged.

No race for governor has been more surprising than Oregon, which we last shifted into the competitive column at the end of July, moving it from Likely to Lean Democrat. Now, we are changing our race rating once again into the Toss Up column.

Polling in the state has been pretty sparse but the most recent numbers from August paint a continually tight race with the two top contenders both locked in around 30 to 33%:

Republicans are becoming so bullish about Christine Drazan’s chance that they’re actually dumping money into the state with the hope of driving up awareness and interest:

Republican candidate for governor Christine Drazan on Wednesday disclosed that her campaign received another $1 million from the Republican Governors Association, bringing the total spent directly by the national group to nearly $2.6 million.

A Republican has not occupied the state’s highest office since 1987. But party leaders are optimistic about their chances of retaking the governor’s mansion this year because of the large portion of Oregon voters who believe the state is headed in the wrong direction and the potential for well-funded unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson to draw votes from the Democrat, former House speaker Tina Kotek. Johnson is a former center-right Democratic state lawmaker who served since 2001.

Having the third option siphoning Democratic votes from former House speaker Tina Kotek, the Democratic candidate, may be just what Drazan needs to eke out a victory.

The only potential hurdle will be whether Betsy Johnson, the well-funded unaffiliated option, actually receives that much support on Election Day. Historically speaking, third party candidates usually poll much better than they perform. When voters are faced with the prospect of throwing their vote away, they often end up selecting a major party candidate instead.

It also helps that it’s an open seat with outgoing Democratic Governor Kate Brown term-limited from running again. Keep an eye on Oregon in November, there could be a Republican upset brewing.