For all the money being spent by Democrats to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin, perhaps it could be better spent elsewhere.
According to many recent polls, and brand new numbers from an AARP poll, Johnson is sitting in the driver’s seat heading into November. His Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, hasn’t been able to land any punches, especially with Biden’s approval rating where it’s at and concerns over the economy at “top of mind” for voters.
The new AARP poll over-samples the over-50 voting demographic, as expected for a senior citizen advocacy group, but that demographic also tends to be the most reliable likely voters:
A new AARP Wisconsin poll shows Wisconsinites over the age of 50 favor Republican candidates when it comes to Governor and US Senate.
The poll, released today, shows respondents leaned towards Tim Michels in his race for Governor over Democratic incumbent Tony Evers 50% to 47% and favored Senator Ron Johnson over his challenger Mandela Barnes 51% to 46%.
Roughly 38% of the state’s population is age fifty or older, but the age group makes up 55% of registered voters.
Johnson is polling slightly ahead of his Republican colleague running for the governor’s seat, but with both big races on the ballot, if Johnson wins, Michels stands a good chance of winning as well.
The latest RealClearPolitics trend is breaking in Johnson’s direction after seeing Barnes with a slight lead back in July and August:
Johnson has even topped the 50% mark on two occasions, a benchmark for incumbents measuring whether they might still have majority support.
In the governor’s race, the numbers are less rosy for Republicans but still promising in terms of a close race that could also be tipping in the right direction at the right time:
Michels, the Republican challenger in this race, isn’t as strong against Evers as Johnson is against Barnes but the race can’t be labeled anything short of a toss-up.
The notion that Johnson could win his Senate race by five points but Michels gets held back and loses the governor’s race seems unlikely. If Johnson truly is carrying a sizable lead in a good year for Republicans, Michels stands a greater than 50% shot at recapturing the Wisconsin state house again.
One of the big issues in the governor’s race is Covid-19 and the ongoing damage done to children by prolonged school shutdowns. It’s a topic Evers, the Democratic incumbent, is on the hook for:
?BREAKING?
Students aren’t rebounding from the devastating COVID shutdowns. According to data released this morning by @WisconsinDPI, the @GovEvers shutdowns have had a bigger impact than we could have thought. ? pic.twitter.com/VxAj4WvC84— Institute for Reforming Government (@ReformingGovt) September 29, 2022
Parents have been unkind in recent election cycles to politicians that imposed overly harsh rules and mandates on children seemingly without concern or care about what it would do to their emotional, psychological, and educational development. They kept saying “kids are resilient,” and that seemed to be the accepted line to continue keeping schools closed in 2020, 2021, and some into the first half of 2022.
Evers and other Democratic officials around the country are finally being made to answer for these decisions, another issue giving Republicans an upper hand coupled with Biden’s bad economy.
The tell in Wisconsin will be whether national Democratic organizations abandon the Senate race and start pouring money into other states. Keep an eye on the Badger State over the next few weeks for a noticeable shift in spending.
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