Trump Dominates the Field as DeSantis Fails to Gain Traction

While it remains early in the process, there’s no denying that the current trend of former president Donald Trump solidifying his hold on the 2024 GOP primary is becoming a problem for the yet-to-announce campaign of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Hit by a string of negative stories and some self-inflicted wounds, DeSantis has been trying to navigate the political minefield as he embarks toward a presidential announcement coming in May or June.

As of late, the polls are becoming kinder to Trump while support for DeSantis has started to recede:

Former President Trump, who’s running to return to the White House in 2024, now leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a possible contender who hasn’t yet declared a 2024 bid, by 36 points in a new poll of Republican primary voters.

A CBS News-YouGov poll, released Monday, found Trump at the head of a hypothetical GOP primary field with 58 percent of the vote, followed by DeSantis with 22 percent.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) and conservative entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, both of whom have launched official bids for the Republican nomination, earned just 4 and 5 percent, respectively. Trump’s former President Mike Pence, who hasn’t yet said whether he’s running, also earned 5 percent.

DeSantis is now stuck in the low twenties whereas just a couple of months ago he was frequently topping into the mid-thirties at times. Some polls even showed him beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup.

Since January, when the Florida legislative session started, DeSantis has been busy signing one bill after another. Whether it’s tightening abortion restrictions or his ongoing battle with Disney, it almost seems like the Governor is lapping himself.

There’s a possibility that doing so much so quickly. along with signing a law that would allow him to run for president without resigning his post as governor, might seem somewhat self-serving in the eyes of primary voters.

As CNN notes, DeSantis’ poll numbers right now resemble those of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the Democratic side:

Things have gotten so bad for DeSantis that a recent Fox News poll shows him at 21% – comparable with the 19% that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has pushed debunked conspiracy theories about vaccine safety, is receiving on the Democratic side.

DeSantis was at 28% in Fox’s February poll, 15 points behind Trump. The Florida governor’s support has dropped in the two Fox polls published since, and he now trails the former president by 32 points.

That’s the wrong way on the political escalator. Trump’s efforts to bury DeSantis have been paying off to some measurable extent.

DeSantis supporters will say it’s early and the Governor has yet to announce his candidacy. When he does, he’ll surely get a bump. That’s true, but if you’re sitting around 20%, a bump to 25% isn’t going to offer much in the way of making a big splash in the race.

While not a direct comparison, there are some similarities between DeSantis and the former Republican Governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker.

Walker became a national figure while battling to enact Right-to-Work legislation for public employees in the state of Wisconsin. His unwillingness to back down or concede to a growing chorus of detractors earned him a lot of credibility as a possible presidential contender when he launched a campaign for the White House in early 2015.

Walker entered the 2016 GOP primary race for the presidential nomination but withdrew from the race in September 2015 before any primary votes were cast. His statewide success in Wisconsin couldn’t translate well enough to the demands of a national campaign. Republicans loved what he accomplished in Wisconsin but couldn’t make the leap to why that success was an argument to become the next president.

DeSantis is in a stronger position today than Walker was when he joined the race in 2015. Ironically, DeSantis will be battling Donald Trump as Walker was as well.

The next 30 to 60 days will be pivotal in this race as DeSantis makes final preparation for formally announcing his candidacy.

Which way will his support start moving after he announces? That remains to be seen.