Morning Consult Shock Poll: Trump 60, DeSantis 19, Pence 5

If you were unsure whether former President Donald Trump still had a lock on the Republican Party, look no further than the latest numbers from Morning Consult.

Perhaps it’s worth asking what’s happening to Ron DeSantis?

Since around March or so, the Governor’s poll numbers against Trump in the 2024 GOP primary have been slipping.

None, however, have marked a low point such as this with Trump hitting near-super-majority support:

Trump’s biggest lead to date:

Trump Posts Biggest Lead Yet Over GOP Field: Three in 5 potential Republican primary voters back Trump’s bid for the GOP nomination, giving him his largest lead yet over his current and potential rivals since Morning Consult began tracking the race in December. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s yet to launch his candidacy, is supported by 19% of the party’s prospective electorate, his lowest level of support since tracking began.

Aside from Trump, perhaps the other “winner” of these numbers has to be Vivek Ramaswamy. The man went from a one-percenter to topping other well-known Republican politicians like Nikki Haley and tying with Mike Pence. The reason for that is simple. Ramaswamy has been on a lot of cable news hits and podcasts, and he’s a brilliant orator. He has an ability to break down arguments into understandable bite-sized chunks and he is unwilling to back down.

Still, Ramaswamy is a sideshow right now compared to Trump and DeSantis.

Why is Trump surging and DeSantis is wilting from his previous peak in the high twenties and low thirties? It would seem that some of the Trump world criticism is sticking and DeSantis, for all his Florida legislative victories, isn’t doing himself any favors.

For all his bluster, DeSantis has earned cheers from conservatives for taking on issues surrounding transgender indoctrination in schools and fighting Disney’s left-wing influence in Florida politics. Those wins, however, came with a cost.

As Politico reports, DeSantis has lost ground with the anti-Trump Wall Street crowd who think he’s, well, too Trumpy:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had been seen as the top pick to lock down the support of financial titans who have already pumped millions into his state campaigns.

But as he stumbles through gaffes over everything from his personal demeanor and stance on Ukraine to his snacking habits, Wall Street donors are keeping the door open to his competitors, according to more than a dozen bankers, attorneys and political consultants interviewed for this story.

“People will change horses,” said Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist for both former Bush presidents. “You may get really excited about somebody and then all of a sudden realize, ‘Eh, not really my cup of tea.’”

It was “‘wait and see,’ and this is why,” said an adviser to one top GOP donor in New York, who like others interviewed for this story was granted anonymity to avoid alienating candidates. “We’re not the only ones who are happy with our decision to wait and see.”

In the meantime, as some DeSantis backers take the “wait and see” approach, Trump has capitalized and is firming up his support. DeSantis’ battle with Disney is a gamble that paid off initially but seems to have become a liability as time passes. While many agreed with his initial approach, it’s a question of whether the issue has gone too far and now appears to be a case of a government attacking a private company due to its political views.

That can’t be the only issue dogging the governor, but it must be a major issue grating on some anti-Trump DeSantis backers.

Wait, you say, DeSantis hasn’t announced yet, surely he’ll get a bump when he does. That’s true, he’s planning a hard launch in June according to the latest reports.

Between now and then, will he improve and launch in the mid to high twenties or go the other direction and launch in the mid to high teens? Neither one is a fantastic option.

Meanwhile, Trump continues cruising along and seems inseparable from the GOP base.

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Nate Ashworth

The Founder and Editor-In-Chief of Election Central. He's been blogging elections and politics for over a decade. He started covering the 2008 Presidential Election which turned into a full-time political blog in 2012 and 2016 that continues today.

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